Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach

As of 12 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 41 of 41 outbound references and 1 inbound Pith citation observation for arXiv:2607.17060.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2607.17060 v1

Coverage vector

measured 41 of 41 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:53.879675Z

measured 42 of 42 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00

measured 1 of 1 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-01T14:25:45.515641Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

41 of 41 outbound references displayed

verified exact1
verified fuzzy0
unresolved38
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External citation measurements

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Outbound references

Observation 610ba4a0-2900-4dc8-9b11-8e19d4a58db7 · outbound

This paper cites What learning algorithm is in-context learning? investigations with linear models.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach What learning algorithm is in-context learning? investigations with linear models

Reference 1

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Observation 784bba52-408d-47c5-b9b2-9cfd2e4daf21 · outbound

This paper cites Bayesian predictive inference beyond martingales,.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Bayesian predictive inference beyond martingales,

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.140185Z

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Observation 785c7834-d7ea-4db9-ae9b-20f46cb1a2c0 · outbound

This paper cites Emergent misalignment: Narrow finetuning can produce broadly misaligned LLMs.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Emergent misalignment: Narrow finetuning can produce broadly misaligned LLMs

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.386020Z

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Observation 1a263e46-9de4-490b-ad5c-e55fcabba1da · outbound

This paper cites GPT-NeoX-20B: An Open-Source Autoregressive Language Model.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach GPT-NeoX-20B: An Open-Source Autoregressive Language Model

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.476501Z

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Observation a03b6481-192f-4928-926b-317e0788267b · outbound

This paper cites Sliced and Radon Wasserstein Barycenters of Measures.Journal of Mathematical Imaging and Vision, 51 (1):22–45, 2015.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Sliced and Radon Wasserstein Barycenters of Measures.Journal of Mathematical Imaging and Vision, 51 (1):22–45, 2015

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.612470Z

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Observation f734f143-3fd8-41d7-902d-a73558b7449d · outbound

This paper cites Language models are few-shot learners.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Language models are few-shot learners

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.681534Z

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Observation b1b43af9-f877-4f91-9d66-0f61279ab6a5 · outbound

This paper cites Dynamics of Transient Structure in In-Context Linear Regression Transformers.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Dynamics of Transient Structure in In-Context Linear Regression Transformers

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.777778Z

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Observation fdd029e2-aaa0-401b-bc1b-e170eceaa4c7 · outbound

This paper cites La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives.Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré, 7(1):1–68, 1937.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives.Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré, 7(1):1–68, 1937

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:50.922212Z

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Observation b011b8ce-25ff-4c13-abf4-e9a712c306b4 · outbound

This paper cites Language modeling is compression.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Language modeling is compression

Reference 9

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Observation dffb68d1-6ac6-4d8d-8edc-7dda94501a17 · outbound

This paper cites De Finetti’s theorem for Markov chains.The Annals of Probability, 8(1):115–130, 1980.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach De Finetti’s theorem for Markov chains.The Annals of Probability, 8(1):115–130, 1980

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:51.155200Z

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Observation ef01189a-8968-4d00-a96f-8f2796d1e9fe · outbound

This paper cites Edelman, Eran Malach, and Surbhi Goel.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Edelman, Eran Malach, and Surbhi Goel

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:51.215645Z

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Observation 6f882672-5a44-4397-a1f2-742630abcabb · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Unresolved cited work

Reference 12

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Observation be76043c-b4ca-4c03-a7ff-fd3200c33e2f · outbound

This paper cites Martingale posterior distributions.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 85(5):1357–1391, 2023.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Martingale posterior distributions.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 85(5):1357–1391, 2023

Reference 13

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Observation 55df2440-c60c-45bf-94c7-91251a2ed3eb · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Unresolved cited work

Reference 14

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Observation b6be0b30-c6c3-4984-8e07-1d982537656f · outbound

This paper cites Exchangeability, Prediction and Predictive Modeling in Bayesian Statistics.Statistical Science, 40(1), January 2025.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Exchangeability, Prediction and Predictive Modeling in Bayesian Statistics.Statistical Science, 40(1), January 2025

Reference 15

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Observation e4241209-6772-48b7-a18b-1aae3a3454f9 · outbound

This paper cites Uncertainty Decomposition for Bayes-Filtered Transformers via Bayesian Predictive Inference.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Uncertainty Decomposition for Bayes-Filtered Transformers via Bayesian Predictive Inference

Reference 17

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Observation d0d928cd-15e3-4625-a3cf-c2e98fd67290 · outbound

This paper cites What can trans- formers learn in-context? a case study of simple function classes.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach What can trans- formers learn in-context? a case study of simple function classes

Reference 18

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Observation 62aeb6f8-a06a-439a-8f12-431820b1b618 · outbound

This paper cites Memory-based meta-learning on non-stationary distributions.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Memory-based meta-learning on non-stationary distributions

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:51.789693Z

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Observation e878053e-5b9c-4aa4-b27c-e24802f2e9ec · outbound

This paper cites Learning universal predictors.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Learning universal predictors

Reference 20

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Observation 4c1af0c3-e22c-420b-8758-70f5b869bea4 · outbound

This paper cites TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second

Reference 21

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Observation d1fb29d1-0b20-469f-83d6-31214fd4089d · outbound

This paper cites Accurate predictions on small data with a tabular foundation model.Nature, 637(8045):319–326, January 2025.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Accurate predictions on small data with a tabular foundation model.Nature, 637(8045):319–326, January 2025

Reference 22

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Observation 9c02661d-673d-4f06-a15f-0b1009f42e54 · outbound

This paper cites Springer, Cham, 3 edition, 2021.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Springer, Cham, 3 edition, 2021

Reference 23

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Observation 88fcda41-580f-402c-a388-7bef70bd7420 · outbound

This paper cites Gener- alized sliced Wasserstein distances.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Gener- alized sliced Wasserstein distances

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T19:13:52.121800Z

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Observation 2c3f637b-3787-41e5-ab6f-15c1ad3a527a · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Unresolved cited work

Reference 25

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Observation ff565850-d418-4760-9c59-dc23a60ee2ea · outbound

This paper cites Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference

Reference 26

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Observation 2eb8c762-5262-45a1-ae64-b0bc762b7dfe · outbound

This paper cites Uncertainty Quantification for Prior-Data Fitted Networks using Martingale Posteriors.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Uncertainty Quantification for Prior-Data Fitted Networks using Martingale Posteriors

Reference 27

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Observation f371aa67-9cee-40e8-b362-7a5accb5c42a · outbound

This paper cites Transformerlens.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Transformerlens

Reference 28

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Observation 1d504bc8-5de4-4551-9e82-192fad79bb1a · outbound

This paper cites TabMGP: Martingale Posterior with TabPFN.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach TabMGP: Martingale Posterior with TabPFN

Reference 29

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This paper cites In-context learning and induction heads.Transformer Circuits Thread, 2022.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach In-context learning and induction heads.Transformer Circuits Thread, 2022

Reference 30

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Observation 23b3bbd4-89e3-4c3a-92de-57bf0534c4e1 · outbound

This paper cites Meta-learning of Sequential Strategies.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Meta-learning of Sequential Strategies

Reference 31

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This paper cites In-context learning through the bayesian prism.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach In-context learning through the bayesian prism

Reference 32

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Observation b3aae234-3125-4ae4-b838-3ef344330cf6 · outbound

This paper cites Competition Dynamics Shape Algorithmic Phases of In-Context Learning.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Competition Dynamics Shape Algorithmic Phases of In-Context Learning

Reference 33

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Observation 5db38c2a-4bb9-4d58-967b-dd5ac9faa6c2 · outbound

This paper cites Pretraining task diversity and the emergence of non-Bayesian in-context learning for regression.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Pretraining task diversity and the emergence of non-Bayesian in-context learning for regression

Reference 34

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What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Rizzo and Gábor J

Reference 35

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What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Shai, Sarah E

Reference 36

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Observation 023a83b3-7bc4-4c7f-86c4-44e103489935 · outbound

This paper cites Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent

Reference 37

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This paper cites Towards understanding fine-tuning mechanisms of LLMs via circuit analysis.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Towards understanding fine-tuning mechanisms of LLMs via circuit analysis

Reference 38

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This paper cites In-context learning strategies emerge rationally.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach In-context learning strategies emerge rationally

Reference 39

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This paper cites An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference.

What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference

Reference 40

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What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Unresolved cited work

Reference 42

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What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach Unresolved cited work

Reference 2025

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Pith citing papers

Observation 10338e30-a1d9-4a24-b9bd-431d32d67389 · inbound

Elicitation without Backpropagation: Steering Model Behavior by Optimizing the Latent Posterior cites this paper.

Elicitation without Backpropagation: Steering Model Behavior by Optimizing the Latent Posterior What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach

Reference 6

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