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CHEOPS photometry from 2024 reveals a reversal in the transit-timing variations of AU Mic c

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-15 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read 2024 CHEOPS transits show AU Mic c's large 2023 timing deviation was not sustained.

desk verdict A solid, honest observational update: the 2024 CHEOPS timings do show AU Mic c's large 2023 TTV deviation did not persist, though the shallow c transits deserve one more validation step. read the letter →

arxiv 2608.01120 v1 pith:JXYMJLI4 submitted 2026-08-02 astro-ph.EP

Z. Garai , Gy. M. Szabó , D. Gandolfi , A. Brandeker , A. Bonfanti , N. Billot , W. Benz , A. Heitzmann
show 85 more authors
G. Olofsson L. Kriskovics Á. Boldog L. Borsato A. Bekkelien G. Bruno H. P. Osborn S. Ulmer-Moll T. G. Wilson Y. Alibert R. Alonso T. Bárczy D. Barrado S. C. C. Barros W. Baumjohann C. Broeg A. Castro-González A. Collier Cameron A. C. M. Correia Sz. Csizmadia P. E. Cubillos M. B. Davies M. Deleuil A. Deline O. D. S. Demangeon B.-O. Demory A. Derekas B. Edwards D. Ehrenreich A. Erikson A. Fortier L. Fossati M. Fridlund K. Gazeas M. Gillon M. Güdel M. N. Günther Ch. Helling K. G. Isaak T. Keller L. L. Kiss D. Kitzmann J. Korth K. W. F. Lam J. Laskar A. Lecavelier des Etangs A. Leleu M. Lendl D. Magrin P. F. L. Maxted B. Merín C. Mordasini V. Nascimbeni D. Orikhovskyi R. Ottensamer I. Pagano E. Pallé G. Peter D. Piazza G. Piotto D. Pollacco T. Pribulla D. Queloz R. Ragazzoni N. Rando H. Rauer I. Ribas M. Rieder N. C. Santos G. Scandariato D. Ségransan A. E. Simon A. M. S. Smith S. G. Sousa R. Southworth M. Stalport M. Steinberger S. Sulis S. Udry B. Ulmer V. Van Grootel J. Venturini E. Villaver V. Viotto N. A. Walton
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords transit-timingvariationsAUMicCHEOPSexoplanetphotometryO-CdiagramyoungstellarsystemsactivityTTVmodeling
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper reports new CHEOPS space-telescope transit observations of the young planetary system AU Mic taken in June–September 2024 and asks what they do to the previously reported transit-timing signal. Its central claim is that the large timing deviation of AU Mic c seen in 2023, with observed-minus-calculated offsets near +49 and +57 minutes, was not sustained: the 2024 offsets cluster from about −38 to −8 minutes, indicating a return toward zero and a reversal of the 2022–2023 trend. This matters because transit-timing variations are the main observational route to hidden planets in this system; if the 2023 excursion was an outlier rather than a growing signal, the true TTV amplitude of AU Mic c may be much smaller than previously suggested. The companion planet AU Mic b shows a stable, well-established timing modulation with semi-amplitude 10±3 minutes and a characteristic timescale of 1168±20 days.

What carries the argument

The central object is the observed-minus-calculated (O−C) diagram: the difference between each observed mid-transit time and the prediction of a linear ephemeris whose period and reference time are fitted to all available transits. The 2024 mid-transit times are measured from CHEOPS faint-star imagette photometry, after masking flares and outliers (43.4% of points removed), modeling the baseline with a sixth-order polynomial plus a Gaussian-process regression with a simple-harmonic-oscillator kernel, and jointly fitting both planets' transits; an independent reduction of the mission's standard pipeline data reproduces the same timing behavior. The resulting O−C series is then described phenomenologically with a light-time-effect model, whose fitted period is used only as a characteristic modulation timescale and is explicitly not interpreted as the orbit of a real third body.

What would settle it

Re-analyze the 2023 CHEOPS light curves with the same photometry and detrending used for 2024: if the 2023 observed-minus-calculated values move from about +49 and +57 minutes to near zero, the claimed reversal becomes an artifact of differing treatment. Alternatively, observe the 2025–2026 transits: if the offsets return to strongly positive values near the 2023 points, the 2024 reversal is part of a longer oscillation rather than a lasting change in behavior.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

On the authors' own terms, the discovery is that the large 2023 offset in AU Mic c's transit-timing curve was a transient episode rather than the continuation of a steady trend. Using updated linear ephemerides fitted to all available TESS, Spitzer, and CHEOPS transit times, the 2024 CHEOPS mid-transit times yield observed-minus-calculated values for AU Mic c between −38±13 and −8±11 minutes, while the two 2023 CHEOPS visits gave +48.6±4.0 and +57.0±5.2 minutes. The authors stress that both the fitted TTV semi-amplitude (46±26 minutes) and the modulation timescale (2150±110 days) for planet c remain tentative, and they explicitly leave open whether the 2023 deviation was dynamical, activity-related, or partly a data-treatment effect; their central point is simply that the large deviation was not reproduced in 2024. For AU Mic b the signal is coherent, with a 10±3 minute semi-amplitude and 1168±20 day modulation consistent with previous work, reinforcing confidence in that planet's timing behavior.

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing premise is that the measured 2024 mid-transit times are accurate to the quoted few-minute-to-tens-of-minutes precision, meaning the masking of 43.4% of data (mostly flares) and the sixth-order polynomial plus Gaussian-process detrending do not systematically shift the derived transit centers by tens of minutes.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the reversal is real, the 2023 AU Mic c offsets should not be read as evidence of a steadily growing TTV; the case for the proposed non-transiting planet AU Mic d must be revisited, and planet c's genuine TTV amplitude may be close to the few-minute level predicted by earlier work.
  • Continued CHEOPS and TESS monitoring across 2025–2026 should separate a long-period sinusoidal modulation (characteristic timescale about 2150 days) from a one-off 2023 anomaly.
  • The stable AU Mic b signal, with 10±3 minute semi-amplitude on a roughly 1168-day modulation, supports a coherent dynamical origin for that planet's TTVs and makes its future transit times predictable.
  • The 2024 transit depth of AU Mic b is more than 3σ smaller than in 2023, suggesting occulted active regions affect measured depths; tracking both planets' depths over time can map the stellar spot distribution.
  • The updated linear ephemerides for both planets sharpen predictions for future follow-up observations and for dynamical modeling of the system.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the 2023 excursion is attributed to stellar activity or data treatment rather than dynamics, then single-season TTV anomalies in young, active stars should generally be treated as provisional until confirmed in a second season.
  • The reversal is also compatible with a sinusoidal TTV whose period is longer than the observed baseline; with only a few cycles sampled, a stochastic or activity-driven process cannot yet be excluded.
  • An immediate, decisive test is to re-run the present pipeline on the 2023 CHEOPS visits, which the authors state is beyond their scope: if those offsets then shrink toward zero, the apparent reversal would be a methodological artifact rather than an astrophysical change.
  • Because AU Mic b and c have different impact parameters, their simultaneous 2024 transits probe different stellar chords; comparing their depth and timing changes can disentangle spot-crossing effects from true dynamical TTVs.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. This manuscript reports five new CHEOPS transit observations of AU Mic c and nine of AU Mic b obtained between June and September 2024. After masking about 43% of the data points (mostly flares), the authors detrend the PIPE photometry with a sixth-order polynomial plus a Gaussian process, fit both planets jointly with Allesfitter, update the linear ephemerides using all available transit times, and compute observed-minus-calculated (O-C) diagrams. The central claim is that the AU Mic c O-C values in 2024 (roughly -38 to -8 min) lie far below the +48.6 and +57.0 min values reported for 2023, so the large 2023 timing deviation was not sustained and the timings returned closer to the zero point, indicating a reversal of the previously reported trend. For AU Mic b the TTV signal is reported as stable (semi-amplitude 10 +/- 3 min, modulation timescale 1168 +/- 20 d). The AU Mic c TTV semi-amplitude (46 +/- 26 min) and timescale (2150 +/- 110 d) are labeled tentative, and the LiTE3 eccentricity of about 0.93 is explicitly flagged as a phenomenological fitting device. The paper is framed as a measurement paper whose primary objective is to present the 2024 timings and assess their impact on the previously reported TTV behavior.

Significance. If the 2024 timings are accurate, the result is significant for the interpretation of the AU Mic system: it indicates that the exceptional 2023 excursion of AU Mic c was a transient rather than the beginning of a sustained trend, with direct consequences for proposed additional perturbers (AU Mic d and e) and for the amplitude of the underlying TTV. Strengths of the paper include the cross-check with the independent DRP photometry using a simultaneously fitted baseline, robustness tests with alternative GP setups, the consistency across five separate 2024 transits, data availability, and unusually explicit caveats about the phenomenological LiTE3 model. The seasonal-offset comparison in the text (76 min between the 2023 and 2024 mean O-C levels versus the 6-15 min intra-season timing scatter) is a simple and persuasive robustness diagnostic. The principal fragilities are that the absolute accuracy of mid-transit times for a grazing, flare-contaminated transit is not validated end-to-end by an injection-recovery test, and that the reported O-C values depend on the chosen reference ephemeris at the tens-of-minutes level.

major comments (3)
  1. [Section 2, Table 5, Section 3] The O-C values in Table 5 and the '-38 +/- 13 to -8 +/- 11 min' span quoted in Section 3 are computed relative to a linear ephemeris fitted to all available transit times, including the same 2023 and 2024 points whose deviation is the subject of the paper. The choice of reference changes the numbers by tens of minutes: computed with the pre-anomaly Szabó et al. (2022) ephemeris for AU Mic c (Tc = 2459454.8973 BJD_TDB, P = 18.85882 d, the values used in Fig. 1 and Table 2), the 2024 residuals for visits c1-c5 become approximately +23, -1, +28, +14, and -2 min, with a mean near +12 min, rather than the -12, -36, -8, -21, and -38 min of Table 5. The qualitative conclusion that the 2023 deviation was not sustained survives either choice, but the negative sign of the 2024 offsets, the term 'reversal,' and the specific span quoted in the abstract and Section 3 are largely products of a period that has been pulled upward by the 2023 anomaly. The main text should report the 2024 residuals relative to both ephemerides, state explicitly that the updated linear ephemeris is influenced by the 2023 points, and temper the reversal wording; the cleaner statement is that the 2024 timings are consistent with the pre-2023 ephemeris.
  2. [Section 2] The central claim rests on the absolute accuracy of five mid-transit times of a grazing transit (impact parameter 0.85, depth 1353 ppm, full duration 2.3 h; Table 3), measured after masking 43.4% of the points, mostly flares, and removing a sixth-order polynomial baseline. The DRP-based cross-check, which uses aperture photometry and a simultaneously fitted baseline, and the alternative GP setups are genuine and reassuring, but they are reductions of the same 2024 data and do not by themselves certify the absolute zero point of the recovered transit centers. I request an end-to-end injection-recovery test: inject synthetic AU Mic c transits with known mid-transit times into the actual 2024 light curves, run the full PIPE/pycheops and Allesfitter chain, and report bias and scatter of the recovered centers, including the effect of asymmetric flare masking. At a minimum, quantify the sensitivity of the reported O-C values to the polynomial order (e.g., 5th and 7th) and to the exact flare-masking window. I note in fairness that the robustness margin is large: overturning the return-to-zero conclusion would require a systematic bias of roughly 40-60 min, far above the intra-season scatter, so this test bears on the exact 2024 O-C values and their interpretation rather than on the existence of the return.
  3. [Section 3] The reversal interpretation compares the 2024 timings with the 2023 timings of Boldog et al. (2025), which enter this paper only as adopted literature values; the 2023 light curves were not reanalyzed with the 2024 pipeline, masking, or noise model. Since the headline claim is that a previously reported deviation was 'not sustained,' the most plausible non-astrophysical alternative, namely that the 2023 or 2024 mid-transit centers are affected by epoch-dependent analysis systematics, cannot currently be excluded. The authors state that a dedicated reanalysis is beyond the scope of the present work; that is acceptable, but the abstract's 'not sustained' should then be formulated as a statement about the new observations (the 2024 points are inconsistent with an extrapolation of the 2022-2023 trend) rather than as a verdict that the 2023 measurement was an excursion. A homogeneous reanalysis of the 2023 CHEOPS visits with the present pipeline would turn the reversal claim from probable into demonstrated, and I recommend adding it if at all feasible.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Introduction, Section 3] The ~80 min 2023 deviation attributed to Boldog et al. (2025) and the 'up to ~60 min' quoted for the same points with the updated ephemeris are two different numbers; please state explicitly that the difference arises from the change of reference ephemeris.
  2. [Table B.1] The prior for Pmod,b, U(1130,1170) d, brackets the previously reported ~1150-d timescale, so the recovered 1167.6 +/- 20.3 d, and the abstract's '1168 +/- 20 d,' are strongly prior-dominated, as is the narrow Tc,3 prior U(2459470,2459480) used for planet b; please justify these priors or widen them and soften the 'consistent with previous determinations' wording accordingly.
  3. [Section 2, Table 1] Please give the fraction of masked points per visit; a single global 43.4% figure is hard to interpret when the visit efficiencies range from 57% to 77% (Table 1).
  4. [Fig. 2] With e3 about 0.93 and omega3 = 143 +/- 78 deg, the LiTE3 curve for AU Mic c is effectively unconstrained; the red 'best-fitting' curve and cyan uncertainty bands in the right panel overstate the model's information content and should be labeled as an illustrative phenomenological fit.
  5. [Fig. A.3] The comparison of the 2024 residuals under the old and new ephemerides is confined to an appendix; moving this comparison into the main text, e.g., as part of Fig. 2, would directly address the ephemeris-dependence that affects the central numbers.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No circularity: the 2024 AU Mic c TTV reversal claim is a direct observational measurement, not a fitted or self-citational construction.

full rationale

The central claim is an observational statement: five new CHEOPS transit times of AU Mic c in 2024 yield O-C values between -38 +/- 13 min and -8 +/- 11 min, compared with +48.6 +/- 4.0 and +57.0 +/- 5.2 min for the two 2023 transits (Table 5, Fig. 2). These O-C values are residuals from a least-squares linear ephemeris, but the ephemeris only sets the reference zero point; it does not constrain the sign pattern of the residuals. The 2023 and 2024 points are both included in the ephemeris fit, yet the fit cannot force 2023 to be positive and 2024 to be negative, so the reversal is an empirical outcome rather than a construction of the model. The LiTE3/OCFit amplitudes and modulation timescales are fitted to the O-C data and are explicitly labeled tentative and phenomenological; they are not presented as predictions and are not required for the reversal claim. Self-citations (Szabo et al. 2021, 2022; Boldog et al. 2025) supply prior data and reference ephemerides, but the load-bearing 2024 measurements are new to this paper and are cross-checked with an independent DRP reduction and alternative GP setups. The paper honestly states that a dedicated reanalysis of the 2023 light curves is beyond its scope, and it lists stellar activity and residual systematics as possible causes of the 2023 deviation; these are limitations on measurement accuracy and interpretation, not evidence of circularity. No step in the derivation reduces to its own inputs by definition, and no fitted parameter is renamed as a prediction.

Assumptions & free parameters 7 free parameters · 4 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim about the reversal rests on measured mid-transit times from an active star with heavy data editing; the reported TTV amplitudes and timescales are fitted quantities with wide uncertainties. No new physical entities are introduced; the proposed planets d and e are cited from prior work.

free parameters (7)
  • AU Mic b TTV semi-amplitude (A_TTV,b) = 10 ± 3 min
    Fitted by OCFit LiTE3 to the O-C diagram of AU Mic b (Section 3, Table B.1); used to characterize the timing signal.
  • AU Mic b modulation timescale (P_mod,b) = 1168 ± 20 d
    Fitted LiTE3 period, interpreted only as a characteristic timescale, not a physical orbital period (Section 3).
  • AU Mic c TTV semi-amplitude (A_TTV,c) = 46 ± 26 min
    Fitted by OCFit; the paper labels it tentative (Section 3).
  • AU Mic c modulation timescale (P_mod,c) = 2150 ± 110 d
    Fitted LiTE3 period; labeled highly tentative given limited coverage (Section 3).
  • AU Mic c LiTE3 eccentricity (e3) = 0.934 ± 0.071
    Fitted value; explicitly non-physical, reflecting the flexibility of the phenomenological model (Section 3, Table B.1).
  • AU Mic b linear ephemeris (Tc, P) = Tc=2458330.38050±0.00034 d, P=8.4631745±0.0000023 d
    Least-squares fit to all available transit times; used to compute the O-C values for planet b (Section 2).
  • AU Mic c linear ephemeris (Tc, P) = Tc=2458342.22320±0.00037 d, P=18.859065±0.000011 d
    Least-squares fit to all available transit times; used to compute the O-C values for planet c (Section 2).
assumptions (4)
  • domain assumption The O-C diagram can be described by a LiTE3 light-time effect model for the purpose of extracting characteristic timescales and amplitudes.
    The paper explicitly states the model is phenomenological and not a physical dynamical solution (Section 3).
  • domain assumption The stellar parameters (Teff=3665 K, logg=4.52, Rs=0.82 Rsun, Ms=0.60 Msun) from Donati et al. (2023) are correct enough for transit shape and limb-darkening modeling.
    Used to set limb darkening and stellar density priors in the transit fit (Section 2); small errors would not change the timing centers much, but they enter the reported radii and ephemerides.
  • domain assumption Detrending with a sixth-order polynomial and a Gaussian process does not remove or distort the transit signal itself.
    The paper validates this by fitting baseline simultaneously with transit in DRP and testing several GP configurations (Section 2), but it remains an assumption about the noise model.
  • domain assumption The 2023 transit timings from Boldog et al. (2025) are accurate as published.
    The claimed reversal is defined relative to the 2023 O-C values; the authors state that a reanalysis of the 2023 light curves is beyond the present scope (Section 3).

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of CHEOPS photometry from 2024 reveals a reversal in the transit-timing variations of AU Mic c." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/JXYMJLI4

@misc{pith2026260801120,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: CHEOPS photometry from 2024 reveals a reversal in the transit-timing variations of AU Mic c},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/JXYMJLI4}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2608.01120}
}
abstract

We present new CHEOPS transit observations of AU Mic b and AU Mic c obtained between June and September 2024, extending the baseline of transit-timing measurements of this young planetary system. For AU Mic b, the timing signal is well established, with a semi-amplitude (10 $\pm$ 3 min) and a characteristic modulation timescale (1168 $\pm$ 20 d) consistent with previous determinations. By contrast, the new CHEOPS data show that the large transit-timing deviation of AU Mic c reported previously was not sustained. After the steadily increasing timing trend observed in 2022 and 2023, the 2024 timings returned closer to the zero point of the observed-minus-calculated diagram, indicating a reversal of the previously reported behavior. For AU Mic c, both the transit-timing semi-amplitude (46 $\pm$ 26 min) and the characteristic modulation timescale (2150 $\pm$ 110 d) remain tentative. These results highlight the importance of continued long-term monitoring of the AU Mic system.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2608.01120 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. CHEOPS phase-folded and 10-minute-binned transit light curves of AU Mic b (left) and AU Mic c (right) from 2024 after detrending with the pycheops software (arbitrarily shifted in relative flux for clarity). The reference mid-transit times and orbital periods used here are Tc = 2458330.38416 BJDTDB and Porb = 8.4631427 d (planet b), and Tc = 2459454.8973 BJDTDB and Porb = 18.85882 d (planet c), based on the results … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Observed-minus-calculated (O − C) diagrams of mid-transit times for AU Mic b (left panel) and AU Mic c (right panel), computed using the updated linear ephemerides from this work Tc = 2458330.38050 ± 0.00034 BJDTDB, Porb = 8.4631745 ± 0.0000023 d (planet b), and Tc = 2458342.22320 ± 0.00037 BJDTDB, Porb = 18.859065 ± 0.000011 d (planet c), with the best-fitting OCFit models, indicated with red lines. The 1σ and 2σ u… view at source ↗

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 15, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.