Reanalyzing Megamasers: a low value of $H_0$ from a local probe changes our view of the Hubble Tension

Hume A. Feldman; Richard Watkins

REVIEW 4 major objections 5 minor 272 references

Reanalyzing Megamasers: a low value of $H_0$ from a local probe changes our view of the Hubble Tension

T0 review · 4 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-07 · deepseek-v4-flash

Challenge this review Re-run · record.json Download PDF Read on arXiv ↗

Pith's one-line read Correcting megamaser redshifts with a high-resolution velocity reconstruction yields H0 ≈ 68.7 ± 2 km/s/Mpc, shifting the Hubble tension from new physics to distance-ladder systematics.

desk verdict A transparent, well-checked reanalysis that flips the megamaser H0 from distance-ladder-like to CMB-like, but the whole shift rides on unvalidated peculiar velocities for three galaxies, so the headline claim is real but not yet secured. read the letter →

arxiv 2608.06247 v1 pith:REZGNUEL submitted 2026-08-06 astro-ph.CO

Richard Watkins , Hume A. Feldman This is my paper

classification astro-ph.CO

keywords HubbleconstantmegamaserspeculiarvelocityreconstructiontensiondistanceladdercosmicmicrowavebackgroundlocalUniversecosmology

verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper reanalyzes the six megamaser galaxies used by previous work to measure the local Hubble constant $H_0$, arguing that the old analysis was biased by the way it treated peculiar velocities. When the redshifts of these galaxies are corrected using the M25 velocity-field reconstruction, the megamaser sample yields $H_0 \approx 68.7 \pm 2$ km/s/Mpc after marginalizing over the velocity-model uncertainty. That value agrees with the CMB measurement of $67.4 \pm 0.5$ and sits in about $2.2\sigma$ tension with the distance-ladder value of $73.5 \pm 0.81$, reversing the previous verdict. The paper concludes that the Hubble tension is likely caused by an unidentified systematic in the distance ladder rather than new physics.

What carries the argument

The central object is the M25 peculiar-velocity reconstruction: a map of large-scale and nonlinear galaxy motions built from the 2M++ redshift survey plus constrained cosmological simulations. It predicts a line-of-sight peculiar velocity for each megamaser host, and those predictions are subtracted from the measured redshifts before fitting a flat $\Lambda$CDM distance-redshift relation. The analysis also treats the velocity-model uncertainty $\sigma_v$ as a free parameter and marginalizes over it, rather than fixing it as previous work did. This matters because smaller $\sigma_v$ gives more weight to the precisely measured NGC 4258, whose M25-corrected redshift alone gives $H_0 \approx 68.2$ km/s/Mpc.

What would settle it

Measure the peculiar velocities of the six hosts with a method independent of the M25 reconstruction, for example through Tully-Fisher or fundamental-plane distances; if the true velocities are, say, 200 km/s lower on average, $H_0$ from megamasers would return to about 71-72 km/s/Mpc and the claimed consistency with the CMB would be gone.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that megamaser distances, which need no distance ladder, do not actually favor a high $H_0$ once their redshifts are corrected with an accurate peculiar-velocity map. In the M25 reconstruction all six maser hosts have positive peculiar velocities, and the three most distant ones all sit in the same large coherent outflow, so their redshifts are all lowered by the correction. The paper's headline result is $H_0 = 68.7 \pm 2$ km/s/Mpc (marginalized over the velocity uncertainty $\sigma_v$), with only a 2.9% posterior probability that $H_0$ is as large as the distance-ladder value of 73.5. The authors read this as evidence that the distance ladder carries a hidden systematic, not that the universe requires new physics.

Load-bearing premise

The M25 reconstruction correctly predicts the line-of-sight peculiar velocities of the six megamaser hosts, especially the large positive values for NGC 6323, NGC 5765b, and NGC 6264; if those predicted velocities are systematically too high, the low $H_0$ disappears.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

If the megamaser estimate $H_0\approx68.7$ is right, the distance ladder's $73.5$ is likely biased by an unidentified systematic, so no new physics is needed to explain the Hubble tension.
The fact that all six hosts have positive peculiar velocities means the current small sample is biased; discovering megamasers over a wider patch of sky should average out the coherent outflow and stabilize $H_0$.
Peculiar-velocity corrections should be included explicitly in low-redshift $H_0$ analyses, and $\sigma_v$ should be marginalized over rather than fixed.
The C15-corrected result ($H_0=71.5\pm2.6$) still agrees with the CMB within about $1.5\sigma$, so the shift downward is robust to the choice of reconstruction but larger with the higher-resolution M25.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

An independent, model-free measurement of the same six hosts' peculiar velocities would settle the matter; the M25 values could be checked against direct distance-ratio measurements.
If the coherent outflow identified here also envelops nearby Type Ia supernovae, part of the distance-ladder excess may be a local flow artifact rather than a universal late-time expansion.
A robust next test is to compute $H_0$ with the same maser data but using a second high-resolution reconstruction; a result that shifts by several km/s/Mpc between reconstructions would indicate residual systematic uncertainty.

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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Desk Editor's Note

read the letter

The one thing to know: this paper takes the same six megamasers from Pesce et al. (2020), applies a newer velocity reconstruction (McAlpine et al. 2025) to correct redshifts, and gets H0 ≈ 68.7 ± 2 km/s/Mpc, consistent with the CMB and in ~2.2σ tension with the distance ladder. If right, it flips a local, distance-ladder-independent probe from supporting the ladder to supporting the CMB, and reframes the Hubble tension as a ladder systematic rather than new physics. The interesting bit is that this is not a new physical model; it is a careful reappraisal of a small dataset with a better handle on peculiar velocities.

What the paper does well: the likelihood is clearly specified, and the C15 check reproduces P20, which tells me the machinery is honest. Treating σv as a free model parameter and marginalizing over it is a sensible addition. The paper is also refreshingly candid about the sensitivity of its result to that parameter. The check on P20 gives confidence that the difference is not a numerical artifact.

The soft spots are real and in proportion. The entire shift from H0 = 71.5 (C15) to 68.7 (M25) comes from the M25 peculiar velocities for the three farthest galaxies, which are large and positive (434–671 km/s). No independent validation of those predicted velocities is presented; the reconstruction is asserted to be better because it includes constrained simulations. At 100–130 Mpc, 2M++ is sparse, and the coherent outflow in Fig. 1 could be a reconstruction artifact. Overestimate those three velocities by 200–300 km/s and the CMB consistency disappears. The tension with the distance ladder is also only ~2.2σ, and the tail probability drops below 2σ if you raise the σv prior ceiling from 150 to 200 km/s. Six galaxies is a tiny sample, and the result hinges on a few objects.

Still, none of this is a fatal flaw. The analysis is transparent, the caveats are mostly acknowledged, and the central claim is falsifiable with better velocity data or more megamasers. The stress-test concern about the far three galaxies is legitimate and should be addressed—ideally with a comparison to other reconstructions or measured peculiar velocities at those positions—but it does not sink the paper on its own; it makes the headline result provisional.

Who is this for? Anyone working on the Hubble tension, especially on the distance-ladder versus non-ladder framing. It deserves a serious referee: the statistical treatment is careful, the result is new, and the implications are significant even if the current evidence is not conclusive. My recommendation is to send it out with a request that the referee push for validation of the M25 velocities and a robustness check against the prior choice. This is a solid contribution that needs strengthening, not a desk reject.

Referee Report

4 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper reanalyzes the six megamaser galaxies of Pesce et al. (2020) using a new peculiar velocity reconstruction (McAlpine et al. 2025, M25) to correct redshifts. Whereas P20 found H0 consistent with the local distance ladder, the authors find H0 = 68.7 ± 2 km/s/Mpc after marginalizing over a velocity uncertainty parameter, consistent with the CMB and in about 2.2σ tension with the distance ladder. They argue that the P20 result was biased high by peculiar velocities, especially a coherent outflow involving the three most distant megamasers, and that the Hubble tension may therefore be due to a distance-ladder systematic.

Significance. If the result holds, it is significant: it provides an independent, non-distance-ladder local probe that supports the CMB value of H0 and shifts attention toward distance-ladder systematics rather than new physics. The paper is clearly written, the likelihood is explicitly specified, and the reproduction of P20's C15-based result (H0 = 71.5 ± 2.6) is a useful consistency check. The exploration of the dependence of H0 on the assumed velocity uncertainty σ_v is also valuable. However, the central conclusion hinges on unvalidated M25 velocity predictions for the three farthest galaxies and on the choice of prior for σ_v, so the result is not yet fully secured.

major comments (4)

[Section 2, Table 1] The M25 peculiar velocities for NGC 6323 (671 km/s), NGC 5765b (546 km/s), and NGC 6264 (434 km/s) are the main drivers of the shift from H0 = 71.5 ± 2.6 (C15) to H0 ≈ 68.7 (M25), but no uncertainties are quoted for these predictions and no validation is presented at the megamaser positions. At 100–130 Mpc the 2M++ survey that seeds the reconstruction is sparse, and the coherent outflow shown in Fig. 1 is an output of the reconstruction rather than an independent check. The paper should compare the M25 predictions for these galaxies with observed peculiar velocities (e.g., from CosmicFlows or direct distance measurements) and quote the reconstruction's internal uncertainty; without this, the central claim is not secured.
[Section 5, Table 2 and Fig. 4] The significance of the claimed tension with the distance ladder depends on the upper limit σ_lim of the uniform prior on σ_v. The paper reports P(H0 > 73.5) = 0.029 for σ_lim = 150 km/s and 0.049 for σ_lim = 200 km/s, corresponding to about 2.2σ and 2.0σ in a two-sided Gaussian sense. Because the likelihood for σ_v has a long tail toward large values, the paper should show P(H0 > 73.5) for a wider range of σ_lim (e.g., 250 and 300 km/s) and state explicitly that the 'greater than 2σ' claim is not robust to the prior.
[Section 2 and Section 4] The M25 reconstruction is based on constrained cosmological simulations, but the paper does not state the fiducial cosmological parameters (including H0) assumed in those simulations. If the reconstruction assumes a low H0, the large positive velocities predicted for the distant megamasers could partly reflect the assumed expansion rate rather than real peculiar motions, biasing the corrected H0 toward the CMB. The authors should either demonstrate that the M25 velocities are independent of the assumed H0 or quantify the sensitivity, for example by comparing with a reconstruction using a different fiducial H0. This is a potential circularity concern that needs to be addressed explicitly.
[Section 3, Eq. (3)] The error model in Eq. (3) assigns a single global σ_v to all galaxies, but does not include any per-galaxy uncertainty in the reconstructed peculiar velocity. When σ_v is marginalized, the posterior prefers small values, effectively trusting the M25 predictions with little uncertainty. The reconstruction error is likely distance-dependent and correlated between the three galaxies in the same outflow. Please justify that a single global σ_v is adequate, or propagate per-galaxy velocity uncertainties from M25.

minor comments (5)

[Section 2] The phrase 'by chance all of the maser galaxies have positive peculiar velocities' is misleading if the galaxies share a coherent outflow; please rephrase to acknowledge that the positives are expected for a coherent flow.
[Section 5] In the sentence 'The reduced chi squared χ²_v for 5 degrees of freedom ... is only 0.63, making is plausible that σ_v could be significantly smaller,' the word 'is' should be 'it'.
[Section 3, Eq. (3)] The absolute value notation after the derivative is ambiguous; please write the Jacobian factor more explicitly, e.g., as σ_v/c × |d d_m(z)/dz| evaluated at z_i.
[Table 1] Please define 'PV' in the caption or in a table footnote, since it is not defined in the table itself.
[Introduction] The distance ladder value H0 = 73.5 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc is quoted from H0DN Collaboration et al. (2026) without stating whether 0.81 includes systematic uncertainties; please clarify.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the megamaser H0 estimate derives from external distances and an external velocity reconstruction; self-citations are ancillary, not load-bearing.

full rationale

The paper fits H0 by maximizing the likelihood in Eq. (1) using distances from P20 and redshifts corrected by peculiar velocities from the M25 reconstruction (McAlpine et al. 2025). Neither the distances nor the peculiar velocities are fitted to the CMB or distance-ladder values used for comparison, so the central result is not equivalent by construction to its inputs. The velocity uncertainty sigma_v is treated as a model parameter with an explicit prior, and the paper reports the prior dependence of the tension (P(>HDL)=2.9% for sigma_lim=150 km/s and 4.9% for sigma_lim=200 km/s); this is a modeling sensitivity, not a fitted input renamed as a prediction. The cited works of Watkins et al. 2026a,b by the present authors are used to support the accuracy and resolution of M25, but the same claim is also attributed to M25 itself and to Stiskalek et al. 2026, so the argument does not reduce to self-citation. No uniqueness theorem is imported, and no known result is renamed. The main vulnerability, namely unvalidated M25 predictions at the three farthest megamaser hosts, is an accuracy concern rather than a circularity.

Assumptions & free parameters 4 free parameters · 4 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The analysis is simple, but it depends on a handful of prior choices and one external model: the M25 velocity field. The most important are the fixed Omega_m, the Gaussian residual velocity error assumption, and especially the unverified accuracy of M25 for these specific galaxies. H0 is the fitted target, and sigma_v with its prior absorbs the velocity reconstruction error.

free parameters (4)

Omega_m = 0.3 (fixed)
Matter density fixed to a standard value; authors state results are insensitive to its precise value.
sigma_v = fitted with uniform prior [0, 150] km/s; also tested at 0, 10, 20, 40, 100, 150
Velocity uncertainty parameter; controls relative weight of NGC 4258 and the resulting H0 and tension significance.
sigma_lim = 150 km/s (also 200)
Upper bound of the uniform prior on sigma_v; chosen by hand, and changing it from 150 to 200 changes P(>H_DL) from 2.9% to 4.9%.
H0 = 68.7 ± 2 km/s/Mpc (marginalized)
The target of the fit; derived from the six megamaser distances and M25-corrected redshifts.

assumptions (4)

domain assumption Flat ΛCDM with Omega_m = 0.3
Used in Eq. 2 to compute angular diameter distance; authors note insensitivity to Omega_m.
domain assumption M25 velocity reconstruction accurately predicts peculiar velocities of the six megamaser hosts
Central input; if biased, the H0 shift disappears. Entered in Section 2 and Table 1.
domain assumption Residual velocity errors are Gaussian with variance sigma_v^2
The likelihood in Eq. 3 assumes Gaussian residuals even though the paper criticizes Gaussian PV models; sigma_v is then fit or fixed.
domain assumption P20 geometric distances are accurate, with asymmetric errors symmetrized
Distances are taken as ground truth from P20; Table 1 averages upper and lower errors.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Reanalyzing Megamasers: a low value of $H_0$ from a local probe changes our view of the Hubble Tension." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/REZGNUEL

@misc{pith2026260806247,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Reanalyzing Megamasers: a low value of $H_0$ from a local probe changes our view of the Hubble Tension},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/REZGNUEL}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2608.06247}
}

abstract

Megamaser distances can be measured without using the traditional distance ladder. As such, they provide an independent probe of the local expansion rate, quantified by the Hubble constant $H_0$. We re-analyze megamaser distance and redshift data to obtain a new, more accurate, estimate of $H_0$. The main improvement in our analysis is the use of a new velocity field reconstruction to correct redshifts for peculiar velocities. This reconstruction utilizes constrained cosmological simulations in addition to redshift survey data to more accurately capture both coherent flows as well as nonGaussian individual galaxy motions. We argue that previous estimates of $H_0$ from megamaser data were susceptible to bias due to peculiar velocities. By correcting for peculiar motions using this new reconstruction we obtain a value of $H_0$ that is consistent with the value from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and in tension with the value from the local distance ladder at greater than a $2\sigma$ level, whereas previous results showed consistency with the distance ladder and tension with the CMB at greater than $2\sigma$. Our results suggest that the Hubble tension is due to some heretofore undetermined systematic in the distance ladder rather than new physics.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2608.06247 by the authors.

**Figure 1.** — The Mollweide projection of the M25 radial velocity field for a shell between 105 and 135 Mpc. The angular positions of the furthest three megamasers, which are at distances within this shell, are shown as black dots. We see that the three megamasers participate in a large coherent outflow. maser galaxies drawn from P20, including peculiar velocities found using the C15 reconstruction and with the addition of p… view at source ↗

**Figure 2.** — Likelihood of H0 for the data corrected using peculiar velocities from C15 (middle blue curve) and M25 (leftmost orange curve) using a velocity uncertainty of σv = 150 km/s for both models. For comparison, the rightmost green curve is the H0 likelihood for no peculiar velocity correction but with σv = 250 km/s, the primary model used in P20. The likelihood curves are normalized to have equal area. Markov Chain M… view at source ↗

**Figure 4.** — A corner plot of the likelihood as a function of H0 and σv with the limit σlim = 150 km/s. Contours correspond to 68% and 95%. In solid blue (dashed red) is the likelihood function correcting for peculiar velocities using C15 (M25). using the local distance ladder is a characteristic of the local Universe or due to some systematic associated with the distance ladder itself. Megamasers provide a possible way of an… view at source ↗

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