The observability of gamma-rays from neutralino annihilations in Milky Way substructure

We estimate the probability of detecting gamma-rays from the annihilation of neutralino dark matter in dense, central regions of Milky Way substructure. We characterize Galactic substructure statistically based on Monte Carlo realizations of the formation of a Milky Way-like halo using a semi-analytic method that has been calibrated against the results of high-resolution N-body simulations. We find that it may be possible for the upcoming experiments GLAST and VERITAS, working in concert, to detect gamma-rays from dark matter substructure if the neutralino is relatively light ($\Mchi \lsim 100 \GeV$), while for $\Mchi \gsim 500 \GeV$ such a detection would be unlikely. We perform most of our calculations within the framework of the standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model; however, we also investigate the robustness of our results to various assumptions and find that the probability of detection is sensitive to poorly-constrained input parameters, particularly those that characterize the primordial power spectrum. Specifically, the best-fitting power spectrum of the WMAP team, with a running spectral index, predicts roughly a factor of fifty fewer detectable subhalos compared to the standard $\LCDM$ cosmological model with scale-invariant power spectrum. We conclude that the lack of a detected gamma-ray signal gives very little information about the supersymmetric parameter space due to uncertainties associated with both the properties of substructure and cosmological parameters.