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Measurements of Higgs boson production cross section in the four-lepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV

T0 review · 0 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-10 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read The CMS collaboration measures the H to ZZ to four-lepton fiducial cross section at 13.6 TeV to be 2.89 fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 3.09 fb.

desk verdict First 4l fiducial H cross section at 13.6 TeV; consistent with SM, clean but incremental, and a fair referee assignment. read the letter →

arxiv 2501.14849 v3 pith:JSZP3IPN submitted 2025-01-24 hep-ex

CMS Collaboration This is my paper · ORCID
classification hep-ex
keywords Higgsbosonfiducialcrosssectionfour-leptonfinalstateCMS13.6TeVHtoZZdifferentialRun3
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports the first CMS measurement of the Higgs boson fiducial cross section at the new LHC collision energy of 13.6 TeV, using the H to ZZ to four-lepton decay channel with 34.7 inverse femtobarns of data collected in 2022. The central result is an inclusive fiducial cross section of 2.89 (+0.53/-0.49 statistical, +0.29/-0.21 systematic) fb, which agrees with the standard model expectation of 3.09 (+0.27/-0.24) fb. The paper also presents differential cross sections as functions of the transverse momentum and rapidity of the four-lepton system, all consistent with standard model predictions. A sympathetic reader would take this as evidence that Higgs production at the higher LHC energy continues to behave exactly as the standard model predicts.

What carries the argument

The analysis carries the argument on an unbinned maximum-likelihood fit to the four-lepton invariant mass, Eq. (2), in which the signal yield is parameterized directly in terms of the fiducial cross section sigma_fid. Detector response is unfolded through a response matrix epsilon_{i,j} from simulation, and the resonant signal shape is modeled with a double-sided Crystal Ball function. The load-bearing background normalization uses an NNLO/LO K factor computed for gg to H to ZZ with the HNNLO program, applied to the gg to ZZ irreducible background as a function of mZZ; this K factor is taken identical to the Run 2 13 TeV value. That K-factor transfer is the mechanism that connects the observed m4l spectrum to the quoted cross section.

What would settle it

Compute the full next-to-next-to-leading-order gg to ZZ K factor at 13.6 TeV in the 105-160 GeV mass range and compare it with the signal K factor used here: a difference beyond 10% would shift the central cross section by more than the quoted background uncertainty, and a full NNLO prediction would settle whether the soft-collinear transfer holds.

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Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that, in a fiducial phase space closely matching the CMS acceptance, the pp to H to ZZ to 4l production rate at $\sqrt$(s) = 13.6 TeV equals the standard model rate within the measured uncertainties. The measured inclusive value is 2.89 fb with total uncertainties of roughly +0.60/-0.53 fb, bracketing the SM value of 3.09 fb; the largest systematic component is the electron selection efficiency. Separate fits in the 4e, 4mu, and 2e2mu channels are mutually consistent, and the differential measurements in bins of pT^H and |y^H| have p-values of 0.2 and 0.95 against the POWHEG prediction, indicating no shape deviation. The paper states this as a successful test of the standard model at a new center-of-mass energy.

Load-bearing premise

The measurement assumes that the K factor correcting the gluon-gluon ZZ background from leading order to next-to-next-to-leading order is the same as the K factor for the Higgs signal and identical to the Run 2 13 TeV value; if that transfer is wrong by more than the assigned 10%, the extracted cross section shifts.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the result is correct, the standard model continues to describe Higgs production at 13.6 TeV, the first new LHC energy since Run 2.
  • The measured value can be combined with the Run 1 and Run 2 CMS measurements to trace the Higgs fiducial cross section across sqrt(s) = 7, 8, 13, and 13.6 TeV.
  • The differential results in pT and rapidity can be used to constrain gluon-fusion production models, since the pT shape is compared directly with POWHEG and NNLOPS predictions.
  • The electron selection efficiency is identified as the dominant systematic, so future measurements in this channel at 13.6 TeV will gain most from improved electron identification at low pT.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the same analysis is repeated with the full Run 3 dataset, roughly four times the current luminosity, the statistical uncertainty should shrink by about a factor of two and the test becomes more sensitive to a few-percent deviation from the SM.
  • A dedicated NNLO computation of the gg to ZZ background K factor at 13.6 TeV would remove the largest theory-led assumption and could shift the central value by up to about 0.3 fb if the current 10% uncertainty is not conservative.
  • The method of using one K factor for signal and background, justified by soft-collinear arguments at 13 TeV, is a testable prediction: the same ratio should hold at 13.6 TeV and could be checked with a future exact calculation.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

0 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper presents a measurement of the inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections for pp→H→ZZ→4ℓ (ℓ = e, μ) production at √s = 13.6 TeV using 34.7 fb⁻¹ of CMS data collected in 2022. The analysis uses an unbinned maximum likelihood fit to the four-lepton invariant mass distribution, with backgrounds estimated from simulation and data control samples. The inclusive fiducial cross section is measured to be 2.89 +0.53/−0.49 (stat) +0.29/−0.21 (syst) fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 3.09 +0.27/−0.24 fb. Differential results in bins of the Higgs boson transverse momentum and rapidity are also presented, showing good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Significance. The measurement is the first determination of the H→4ℓ fiducial cross section at 13.6 TeV, extending the energy-dependence test of the SM. The analysis closely follows the well-established CMS methodology, with a clear description of the statistical model, background estimation, and systematic uncertainties. The use of a likelihood-based unfolding and the provision of tabulated results in HEPData are commendable. The main assumption not re-assessed for the new energy is the transfer of the gg→ZZ background K factor from 13 TeV (Section 3 and Section 8); although a dedicated computation would strengthen the documentation, the assigned 10% uncertainty covers the effect, and a 10% error would shift the measured cross section by only about 0.05 fb, well within the total uncertainty. The central claim of agreement with the SM is therefore robust.

minor comments (5)
  1. [Section 3 and Section 8] The statement that the gg→ZZ K factors are identical to those of the Run 2 analysis at √s = 13 TeV because 'no noticeable difference is expected' is not accompanied by a numerical check. Since this is the only systematic not re-assessed for the 2022 data set, a quantitative comparison (e.g., computing the HNNLO v2 K factor at 13.6 TeV for the relevant mZZ range) would strengthen the documentation. The assigned 10% uncertainty bounds the effect, so this is a clarity issue rather than a threat to the central result.
  2. [Section 4] In the description of the particle-flow reconstruction, 'corrsponding' should be 'corresponding'.
  3. [Section 7, Eq. (2)] The notation N^{f,i}_obs(m4ℓ) and similar symbols is confusing, as the text describes binned event counts rather than a continuous function of m4ℓ. Consider using N^{f,i}_obs or referring explicitly to the invariant-mass distribution.
  4. [Section 8] For the lepton momentum resolution uncertainties, it would be helpful to clarify how the quoted percentages (e.g., 12% for the 4e channel) relate to the resolution width parameters, as a reader might otherwise misinterpret them as energy scale errors.
  5. [Section 9, Eq. (3)] The breakdown of systematic uncertainties is asymmetric and given only with two significant figures; it may be useful to note that the quadrature sum of the individual components is consistent with the quoted total, which would reassure readers about the decomposition.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the measured fiducial cross section is extracted from a fit to data and compared with an independent SM prediction.

full rationale

The central result, sigma_fid = 2.89 +0.53/-0.49 (stat) +0.29/-0.21 (syst) fb, is obtained from an unbinned maximum likelihood fit of signal-plus-background templates to the observed m4l distribution (Eq. 2, Section 7). The fitted signal yield is not an input to any equation that defines the measurement; the cross section is the free parameter of the fit, scaled by luminosity and the response matrix from simulation. The SM expectation of 3.09 +0.27/-0.24 fb is taken from the LHC Higgs cross section working group predictions [84] multiplied by acceptance, which is an external, independently computed input. The paper's reliance on earlier CMS four-lepton analyses for selection, background-estimation techniques, and statistical methodology is methodological continuity rather than load-bearing circularity: those methods were validated on independent Run 1 and Run 2 datasets, and the current result is a new measurement at a new center-of-mass energy. The gg->ZZ background normalization uses an NNLO/LO K factor computed for the signal process and transferred to the background, justified by external theory references on the soft-collinear approximation and on the similarity of signal and background K factors [93-96]; this is a modeling assumption with an assigned 10% systematic uncertainty, not a case where a predicted quantity is defined in terms of the measured quantity. No equation in the paper reduces the measured cross section to a fitted parameter renamed as a prediction, and no load-bearing claim rests solely on a self-citation. The derivation chain is therefore self-contained with respect to the central claim, and the appropriate circularity score is 0.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 4 assumptions · 0 invented entities

No free parameters are fitted beyond the measured cross section itself; no new entities are introduced. The central claim rests on standard domain assumptions about SM production fractions, K factors, fixed Higgs mass, and generator accuracy. These are stated in the paper and are not circular.

assumptions (4)
  • domain assumption The relative fractions of Higgs production modes are those predicted by the SM.
    Section 7: the epsilon response matrix and efficiencies are obtained under this assumption; a BSM change in production mixtures could bias the acceptance correction.
  • domain assumption The NNLO/LO K factor computed for gg->H->ZZ signal can be applied to the gg->ZZ background and is identical at 13 and 13.6 TeV.
    Section 3: no exact NNLO gg->ZZ calculation exists; the analysis relies on the soft-collinear approximation and Ref. [93], with the transfer justified by expected energy insensitivity.
  • domain assumption The Higgs boson mass is fixed to mH = 125.38 GeV from an external measurement.
    Section 7: the signal model and cross section are evaluated at this mass; a different mass changes acceptance and line-shape.
  • domain assumption The NNPDF3.1 parton distributions and the Monte Carlo generators accurately model signal and ZZ background kinematics.
    Section 3: all samples are generated with these inputs; uncertainty is assessed via scale and PDF variations, but the central model is assumed.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Measurements of Higgs boson production cross section in the four-lepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/JSZP3IPN

@misc{pith2026250114849,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Measurements of Higgs boson production cross section in the four-lepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrts$ = 13.6 TeV},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/JSZP3IPN}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2501.14849}
}
abstract

The measurements of the Higgs boson (H) production cross sections performed by the CMS Collaboration in the four-lepton (4$\ell$, $\ell$ = e, $\mu$) final state at a center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV are presented. These measurements are based on data collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34.7 fb$^{-1}$. Cross sections are measured in a fiducial region closely matching the experimental acceptance, both inclusively and differentially, as a function of the transverse momentum and the absolute value of the rapidity of the four-lepton system. The H $\to$ ZZ $\to$ 4$\ell$ inclusive fiducial cross section is measured to be 2.89 $^{+0.53}_{-0.49}$ (stat) $^{+0.29}_{-0.21}$ (syst) fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 3.09 $^{+0.27}_{-0.24}$ fb.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2501.14849 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Distribution of the m4ℓ invariant mass in the ranges 70–350 GeV (left), and 105– 160 GeV (right). The black points with error bars represent the data. The colored histograms show the signal (red histogram) and the background contributions. The post-fit normalization for all the processes is obtained from the measurement performed in the range 105 < m4ℓ < 160 GeV and then ported to all other distributions and ranges … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Measured inclusive fiducial H → ZZ → 4ℓ cross section in the various final states at 13.6 TeV. In the upper plot, the acceptance and theoretical uncertainties in the differential bins are calculated using the gg → H predictions from two different generators normalized to next￾to-NNLO order. The subdominant component of the signal (VBF+VH +ttH) is denoted as XH and is fixed to the SM prediction. The measured cross se… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Measured inclusive fiducial H → ZZ → 4ℓ cross section as a function of the center￾of-mass energy √ s. The acceptance is calculated using MINLOHJ [123] at √ s = 7 and 8 TeV and NNLOPS [55] at √ s = 13 and 13.6 TeV. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Events / bin 34.7 fb 1 CMS (13.6 TeV) Data H(125) qq ZZ gg ZZ ZX 0 100 200 300 400 500 p H T (GeV) 0 1 2 Data/MC 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Events / bin 34.7 fb 1 CMS (13.6 TeV) Data H(125… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (2 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Distributions of p H T (left) and |yH | (right) for events with 105 < m4ℓ < 160 GeV. The black points with error bars represent the data. The colored histograms indicate the signal (red histogram) and the background contributions. The histograms are normalized to the p…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Differential fiducial cross sections measured in the H [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_5.png]

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 10, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.