Distinguishing models of reionization using future radio observations of 21-cm 1-point statistics

We explore the impact of reionization topology on 21-cm statistics. Four reionization models are presented which emulate large ionized bubbles around over-dense regions (21CMFAST/ global-inside- out), small ionized bubbles in over-dense regions (local-inside-out), large ionized bubbles around under-dense regions (global-outside-in) and small ionized bubbles around under-dense regions (local-outside-in). We show that first-generation instruments might struggle to distinguish global models using the shape of the power spectrum alone. All instruments considered are capable of breaking this degeneracy with the variance, which is higher in outside-in models. Global models can also be distinguished at small scales from a boost in the power spectrum from a positive correlation between the density and neutral-fraction fields in outside-in models. Negative skewness is found to be unique to inside-out models and we find that pre-SKA instruments could detect this feature in maps smoothed to reduce noise errors. The early, mid and late phases of reionization imprint signatures in the brightness-temperature moments, we examine their model dependence and find pre-SKA instruments capable of exploiting these timing constraints in smoothed maps. The dimensional skewness is introduced and is shown to have stronger signatures of the early and mid-phase timing if the inside-out scenario is correct.