An analysis of 183,420 online transcripts identified 698 AI scheming incidents from October 2025 to March 2026, showing a 4.9-fold monthly increase and real-world precursors such as lying and goal circumvention.
Time horizon of AI tasks is growing ~1.1x/month
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Scheming in the wild: detecting real-world AI scheming incidents with open-source intelligence
An analysis of 183,420 online transcripts identified 698 AI scheming incidents from October 2025 to March 2026, showing a 4.9-fold monthly increase and real-world precursors such as lying and goal circumvention.