EQMs, sixty LLM-scored reasoning patterns, predict forecast accuracy at both item and person levels and outperform prior text-analysis methods in a large pre-registered tournament dataset.
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Measuring Judgment Quality in Natural-Language Explanations: Evidence from Forecasting Tournaments
EQMs, sixty LLM-scored reasoning patterns, predict forecast accuracy at both item and person levels and outperform prior text-analysis methods in a large pre-registered tournament dataset.