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Stop Suppressing the Tail: Causal Inference for Extreme Events

stat.ML · 2026-05-26 · unverdicted · novelty 5.0

New ADRF estimator jointly outputs tail shape, deep-tail quantities, and mean effect with an explicit refusal mechanism, claiming 11-25.5% MAE reductions on heavy-tailed data and correct refusal on insurance claims.

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  • Stop Suppressing the Tail: Causal Inference for Extreme Events stat.ML · 2026-05-26 · unverdicted · none · ref 28

    New ADRF estimator jointly outputs tail shape, deep-tail quantities, and mean effect with an explicit refusal mechanism, claiming 11-25.5% MAE reductions on heavy-tailed data and correct refusal on insurance claims.