A new ensemble method forecasts large local earthquakes by conditioning probability directly on the count of small earthquakes since the last major event, using Gutenberg-Richter statistics from surrounding regions to build the ensemble, with skill demonstrated via ROC curves and validated againstUC
The current paper introduces a method to compute forecasts using a fixed future calendar time interval, using a regional ensemble method
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2025 1verdicts
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Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
A new ensemble method forecasts large local earthquakes by conditioning probability directly on the count of small earthquakes since the last major event, using Gutenberg-Richter statistics from surrounding regions to build the ensemble, with skill demonstrated via ROC curves and validated againstUC