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Scenario Machine: fast radio bursts, short gamma-ray burst, dark energy and Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory silence

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abstract

We discuss the recently reported discovery of fast radio bursts (FRBs) in the framework of the neutron star-neutron star (NS+NS) or neutron star-black hole (NS+BH) binary merger model. We concentrate on what we consider to be an issue of greatest importance: what is the NS merger rate given that the FRB rate (1/1000 yr$^{-1}$ per galaxy) is inconsistent with gamma-ray burst rate as discussed by Thornton and should be significantly higher. We show that there is no discrepancy between NS merger rate and observed FRB rates in the framework of the Scenario Machine population synthesis - for a kick velocity of 100-150 km s$^{-1}$ an average NS merger rate is 1/500-1/2000 yr$^{-1}$ per galaxy up to z = 0.5-1. Based on the Scenario Machine NS merger rate estimates, we discuss the lack of positive detections on the ground-based interferometers, considering the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory.

fields

astro-ph.HE 1

years

2026 1

verdicts

UNVERDICTED 1

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  • Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis astro-ph.HE · 2026-06-26 · unverdicted · none · ref 56 · internal anchor

    A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.