The Evolution of Optical Depth in the Ly-alpha Forest: Evidence Against Reionization at z~6

We examine the evolution of the IGM Ly-alpha optical depth distribution using the transmitted flux probability distribution function (PDF) in a sample of 63 QSOs spanning absorption redshifts 1.7 < z < 5.8. The data are compared to two theoretical optical depth distributions: a model distribution based on the density distribution of Miralda-Escude et al. (2000) (MHR00), and a lognormal distribution. We assume a uniform UV background and an isothermal IGM for the MHR00 model, as has been done in previous works. Under these assumptions, the MHR00 model produces poor fits to the observed flux PDFs at redshifts where the optical depth distribution is well sampled, unless large continuum corrections are applied. However, the lognormal optical depth distribution fits the data at all redshifts with only minor continuum adjustments. We use a simple parametrization for the evolution of the lognormal parameters to calculate the expected mean transmitted flux at z > 5.4. The lognormal optical depth distribution predicts the observed Ly-alpha and Ly-beta effective optical depths at z > 5.7 while simultaneously fitting the mean transmitted flux down to z = 1.6. If the evolution of the lognormal distribution at z < 5 reflects a slowly-evolving density field, temperature, and UV background, then no sudden change in the IGM at z ~ 6 due to late reionization appears necessary. We have used the lognormal optical depth distribution without any assumption about the underlying density field. If the MHR00 density distribution is correct, then a non-uniform UV background and/or IGM temperature may be required to produce the correct flux PDF. We find that an inverse temperature-density relation greatly improves the PDF fits, but with a large scatter in the equation of state index. [Abridged]