Mechanistic experiments on Gemma 3 27B, Qwen 2.5 7B and Magistral Small 24B show verbal confidence is cached at post-answer positions from answer tokens and captures richer answer-quality information beyond token log-probabilities.
Logprobs explained only 4.9% of variance in within-run verbal con- fidence (r= 0.23 , R2 CV = 0.049 ) and 8.4% in cross-run verbal confidence (r= 0.29 , R2 CV = 0.084)
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How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence
Mechanistic experiments on Gemma 3 27B, Qwen 2.5 7B and Magistral Small 24B show verbal confidence is cached at post-answer positions from answer tokens and captures richer answer-quality information beyond token log-probabilities.