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Given the forecasts exactly match with the conditionals, where |𝐷 | < ∞, we can put a bound on the event 𝐸𝑇 = (P(max𝑓 ∈𝐷 ) βˆ₯π‘₯ 𝑓 𝑇 βˆ₯ β‰₯ πœ–π‘‡ )

The Borel-Cantelli lemma states that if the sum of the probability of a sequence of events is finite then the probability that infinitely many of them occur is zero · 2011

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Calibrated Forecasting and Persuasion

econ.TH Β· 2024-06-21 Β· unverdicted Β· novelty 6.0

For stationary ergodic processes the set of calibration-passing forecast distributions equals the mean-preserving contractions of the conditional distribution, allowing the dynamic game to be solved via static persuasion.

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  • Calibrated Forecasting and Persuasion econ.TH Β· 2024-06-21 Β· unverdicted Β· none Β· ref 30

    For stationary ergodic processes the set of calibration-passing forecast distributions equals the mean-preserving contractions of the conditional distribution, allowing the dynamic game to be solved via static persuasion.