PIRAP passes some pre-registered risk floors on Polymarket data but fails others on welfare and bad-debt metrics, leading to an explicit non-deployable recommendation while documenting a halt-versus-margin distinction.
rank distinct markets bymin(first_event_timestamp) and take the firstN
1 Pith paper cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data
PIRAP passes some pre-registered risk floors on Polymarket data but fails others on welfare and bad-debt metrics, leading to an explicit non-deployable recommendation while documenting a halt-versus-margin distinction.