The paper presents OpenEstimate, a multi-domain benchmark showing that six frontier LLMs produce inaccurate and overconfident probabilistic priors on numerical estimation tasks that require synthesizing background information.
--- ### Important Guidance * Do **not** base$\sigma_0$on the variability **across individuals** in the population
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OpenEstimate: Evaluating LLMs on Reasoning Under Uncertainty with Real-World Data
The paper presents OpenEstimate, a multi-domain benchmark showing that six frontier LLMs produce inaccurate and overconfident probabilistic priors on numerical estimation tasks that require synthesizing background information.