Online conformal prediction post-processing guarantees calibrated uncertainty coverage for GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS forecasts of temperature and precipitation including extremes.
Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts Using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics.Monthly Weather Review, 144(6):2375–2393, June 2016
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A post-processing pipeline applied to ECMWF subseasonal ensembles produces calibrated daily wind power forecasts for France that improve on climatology by 5-15% in CRPS up to 16 days ahead.
citing papers explorer
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Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
Online conformal prediction post-processing guarantees calibrated uncertainty coverage for GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS forecasts of temperature and precipitation including extremes.
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Achieving Skilled and Reliable Daily Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales over France
A post-processing pipeline applied to ECMWF subseasonal ensembles produces calibrated daily wind power forecasts for France that improve on climatology by 5-15% in CRPS up to 16 days ahead.