Diffusion model climate emulators provide probability density estimates that allow likelihood calculations and odds-ratio-based importance sampling for extreme events such as tropical cyclones.
I., and Donohoe, A.: The largest ever recorded heatwave—Characteristics and attribution of the Antarctic heatwave of March 2022, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL104 910
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Towards accurate extreme event likelihoods from diffusion model climate emulators
Diffusion model climate emulators provide probability density estimates that allow likelihood calculations and odds-ratio-based importance sampling for extreme events such as tropical cyclones.