KDE-AIS trains a Gaussian process and kernel density surrogate from shared evaluations to build an adaptive importance sampling proposal that converges to the zero-variance optimum for efficient failure probability estimation.
Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: Earth- quakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms.Geophysical Research Letters, 39(10)
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Surrogate-Guided Adaptive Importance Sampling for Failure Probability Estimation
KDE-AIS trains a Gaussian process and kernel density surrogate from shared evaluations to build an adaptive importance sampling proposal that converges to the zero-variance optimum for efficient failure probability estimation.