Average token log-probability provides a zero-shot confidence signal for small LLMs that matches supervised baselines in-distribution and outperforms them out-of-distribution, with a new retrieval-conditional variant improving further at lower latency.
Can llms express their uncertainty? an empirical evaluation of confidence elicitation in llms
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Zero-Shot Confidence Estimation for Small LLMs: When Supervised Baselines Aren't Worth Training
Average token log-probability provides a zero-shot confidence signal for small LLMs that matches supervised baselines in-distribution and outperforms them out-of-distribution, with a new retrieval-conditional variant improving further at lower latency.