MACROCAST is the first leakage-free time series foundation model for real-time macroeconomic forecasting, trained exclusively on synthetic series and vintage data, outperforming AR(1), Chronos-2, BVAR, and DFM benchmarks on FRED-MD.
and Bollerslev, Tim and Diebold, Francis X
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Extends rough fractional stochastic volatility to a multivariate fOU model with GMM estimation, simulation validation, and empirical analysis of realized volatility series showing correlations and spillover effects.
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MACROCAST: A Vintage-Consistent Time Series Foundation Model for Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting
MACROCAST is the first leakage-free time series foundation model for real-time macroeconomic forecasting, trained exclusively on synthetic series and vintage data, outperforming AR(1), Chronos-2, BVAR, and DFM benchmarks on FRED-MD.
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Multivariate Rough Volatility
Extends rough fractional stochastic volatility to a multivariate fOU model with GMM estimation, simulation validation, and empirical analysis of realized volatility series showing correlations and spillover effects.