Prediction market contracts on manipulable asset prices enable manipulators to profit from liquidity traders and impair price discovery, with model and evidence from Polymarket Bitcoin contracts showing manipulation in five-minute but not fifteen-minute settlements.
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Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets
Prediction market contracts on manipulable asset prices enable manipulators to profit from liquidity traders and impair price discovery, with model and evidence from Polymarket Bitcoin contracts showing manipulation in five-minute but not fifteen-minute settlements.