BTF-2 benchmark shows frontier AI forecasters lag humans mainly in assessing political and business leaders' incentives, plan follow-through likelihood, and institutional processes, with a composite agent gaining 0.011 Brier by focusing on blind spots.
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Evaluating Strategic Reasoning in Forecasting Agents
BTF-2 benchmark shows frontier AI forecasters lag humans mainly in assessing political and business leaders' incentives, plan follow-through likelihood, and institutional processes, with a composite agent gaining 0.011 Brier by focusing on blind spots.