Finite-horizon optimal e-value designs for adaptive single-arm binary trials are constructed via dynamic programming and shown to have competitive operating characteristics with automatic futility indication.
Time-sensitive anytime-valid testing
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abstract
Anytime-valid tests allow evidence to be checked during data collection: one can either continue testing or stop and reject the null while still controlling type-I error. Yet, in many applications rejection is useful only if it comes soon enough. We introduce a time-sensitive testing-by-betting framework that favours early rejection by assigning rewards to rejection times and maximising their expected value under a given alternative. This encompasses hard deadlines and softer time preferences. The resulting optimal control problem admits a Bellman representation in terms only of time and evidence against the null, rather than the full history. For hard deadlines, the simple-vs-simple case reduces to a finite-horizon Neyman--Pearson problem and identify the corresponding optimal e-process. Furthermore, we show that exponentially decaying rewards admit a stationary approximation, yielding the exponential-decay-optimal (EDO) criterion: a finite-time-scale counterpart to the classical growth-rate-optimal (GRO) viewpoint in anytime-valid statistics, with the GRO criterion recovered in the large-time-scale limit.
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stat.ME 1years
2026 1verdicts
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Adaptive clinical trials based on design-optimal e-values with automatic curtailment: An application to single-arm trials with binary data
Finite-horizon optimal e-value designs for adaptive single-arm binary trials are constructed via dynamic programming and shown to have competitive operating characteristics with automatic futility indication.