A Bayesian hierarchical model integrates coherence penalization and level-specific focus into forecasting estimation, yielding improved predictive accuracy on simulated and Australian tourism data.
Measuring information and uncertainty
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Embeds G2++ interest rate calibration into nonlinear regression to produce weighted hat matrix, influence functions, and functional delta method diagnostics, applied to 2016-2025 Euro ATM caps data.
A multimodal GNN ablation for Nordic precipitation nowcasting shows sparse point observations improve station and onset scores while NWP and CRPS losses improve radar-grid performance, indicating local and field skills are distinct targets.
A review summarizing mathematical foundations, characterization results, families of proper scoring rules, and their roles in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation.
citing papers explorer
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Hierarchical Bayes meets hierarchical forecasting: A flexible framework for level-focused forecasts
A Bayesian hierarchical model integrates coherence penalization and level-specific focus into forecasting estimation, yielding improved predictive accuracy on simulated and Australian tourism data.
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Advanced Calibration Analysis and Tools: Identifying Influential Observations in Stochastic Interest Rate Model Calibration
Embeds G2++ interest rate calibration into nonlinear regression to produce weighted hat matrix, influence functions, and functional delta method diagnostics, applied to 2016-2025 Euro ATM caps data.
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Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks
A multimodal GNN ablation for Nordic precipitation nowcasting shows sparse point observations improve station and onset scores while NWP and CRPS losses improve radar-grid performance, indicating local and field skills are distinct targets.
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Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluation
A review summarizing mathematical foundations, characterization results, families of proper scoring rules, and their roles in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation.