NeuralTFR neural network produces lower point-forecast errors than BayesTFR on 2009-2023 data and projects broader exposure to low and very low fertility globally by 2040.
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Presents a Bayesian framework extending latent factor models to mixed outcomes for drug benefit-risk analysis with sequential Monte Carlo for dynamic decision making.
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Anticipating Continued Global Fertility Decline via Neural Forecasting
NeuralTFR neural network produces lower point-forecast errors than BayesTFR on 2009-2023 data and projects broader exposure to low and very low fertility globally by 2040.
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Bayesian Benefit-Risk Assessment with Dependent Outcomes via Latent Factor Models
Presents a Bayesian framework extending latent factor models to mixed outcomes for drug benefit-risk analysis with sequential Monte Carlo for dynamic decision making.