Online conformal prediction post-processing guarantees calibrated uncertainty coverage for GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS forecasts of temperature and precipitation including extremes.
Enhancing the reliability of probabilistic
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Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
Online conformal prediction post-processing guarantees calibrated uncertainty coverage for GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS forecasts of temperature and precipitation including extremes.