A strategic framework for identifying the critical factors of 4G technology diffusion in I.R. Iran - A Fuzzy DEMATEL approach

As the most prominent representative of 4G, Long term evolution (LTE) technology has become a focal point for mobile network operators all over the world. However, although Iranian main operators like MCI and Irancell have hugely invested on deployment of this technology, its diffusion has been very slow with a penetration rate of 0.06 at the end of spring 2017. Nevertheless, if this rate doesn't increase, it will yield some negative unintended consequences for telecom operators such as (I) Failure to provide a large number of high quality services (II) Inability to compete with OTT technologies (III) Loss of many revenue opportunities (IV) Prolongation of payback period and (V) The lack of technological integrability with fifth generation networks (5G) and loss of many IOT opportunities. Through discussing the literature of technology adoption and diffusion both generally and specifically, identifying the major limitations of these studies and establishing a comprehensive factor set based on four major groups of (I) mobile handset and operators-related factors (II) subscribers-related biological factors, (III) subscribers-related perceptual factors and (IV) subscribers-related contextual factors, a novel fuzzy DEMATEL model has been developed by which all ICT policy makers can not only get a clear knowledge of factors influencing technology adoption but also know the critical success factors (CSFs) influencing Iranians' mindsets towards LTE adoption. Therefore, they can make effective and actionable policies to scale up LTE diffusion or other ICT-related technologies throughout the society.