Transmission grid stability with large interregional power flows

We propose a general methodology for identifying critical lines in the long-distance transmission of power across large electric grids. When the system is pushed to its operational limit, for instance by large power imbalances such as those generated by high penetration of variable renewable energy sources, the network gets destabilized and loses synchrony. We investigate a model of the synchronous AC grid of continental Europe under tunable large interregional power flows. When those flows exceed some critical value, we find that instabilities emerge due to topological constraints. We identify two different scenarios triggering these instabilities. In the first one, specific sets of lines reach their maximal load simultaneously, causing the grid to split into two desynchronized zones. In the second one, one or few lines become overloaded, which eventually renders one Lyapunov exponent positive. The first scenario is obviously less generic and we develop a numerical approach to force the splitting of the AC grid into disconnected areas. Remarkably, the critical lines identified in this way match those that triggered the separation of the synchronous grid of continental Europe in two instances in 2021. We further discuss how the modes of the system provide information on which areas are more susceptible to lose synchrony with each other.