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Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework

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arxiv 2004.13024 v2 pith:VFNXXFIA submitted 2020-04-27 q-bio.PE

Mariano Cadoni , Giuseppe Gaeta This is my paper · ORCID
classification q-bio.PE
keywords epidemicsizetimescalefeaturesactingassesschangedcharacterizing
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The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters characterizing the model. Using these results and having as guideline the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, we compare the efficiency of different containment strategies for contrasting an epidemic diffusion such as social distancing, lockdown, tracing, early detection and isolation.

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