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From inflation to black hole mergers and back again: Gravitational-wave data-driven constraints on inflationary scenarios with a first-principle model of primordial black holes across the QCD epoch

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arxiv 2209.05959 v3 pith:56336NIJ submitted 2022-09-13 astro-ph.CO gr-qchep-phhep-th

classification astro-ph.COgr-qchep-phhep-th
keywords masseventspbhsblackmergersphenomenologicalpopulationpower
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

Recent population studies have searched for a subpopulation of primordial black holes (PBHs) in the gravitational-wave (GW) events so far detected by LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK), in most cases adopting a phenomenological PBH mass distribution. When deriving such population from first principles in the standard scenario, however, the equation of state of the Universe at the time of PBH formation may strongly affect the PBH abundance and mass distribution, which ultimately depend on the power spectrum of cosmological perturbations. Here we improve on previous population studies on several aspects: (i) we adopt state-of-the-art PBH formation models describing the collapse of cosmological perturbations across the QCD epoch; (ii) we perform the first Bayesian multi-population inference on GW data including PBHs and directly using power spectrum parameters instead of phenomenological distributions; (iii) we critically confront the PBH scenario with LVK phenomenological models describing the GWTC-3 catalog both in the neutron-star and in the BH mass ranges, also considering PBHs as subpopulation of the total events. Our results confirm that LVK observations prevent the majority of the dark matter to be in the form of stellar mass PBHs. We find that the best fit PBH model can comprise a small fraction of the total events, in particular it can naturally explain events in the mass gaps. If the lower mass-gap event GW190814 is interpreted as a PBH binary, we predict that LVK should detect up to a few subsolar mergers and one to $\approx 30$ lower mass gap events during the upcoming O4 and O5 runs. Finally, mapping back the best-fit power spectrum into an ultra slow-roll inflationary scenario, we show that the latter predicts detectable PBH mergers in the LVK band, a stochastic GW background detectable by current and future instruments, and may include the entirety of dark matter in asteroid-mass PBHs.

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Cited by 11 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. The swallowed spike: the formation of light primordial black hole structures around heavy seeds

    astro-ph.CO 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 7.0 of 10

    No torque mechanism studied supplies enough angular momentum for the innermost light-PBH shells around a heavy seed, so the spike core is swallowed and far less dense than a WIMP spike.

  2. Assessing the Impact of Instrumental Requirements on the Scientific Performance of the Einstein Telescope

    astro-ph.IM 2026-07 accept novelty 6.0 of 10

    Degrading the Einstein Telescope's sensitivity in specific frequency bands hurts different science goals in predictable ways, but the mission remains scientifically strong even in the worst modelled cases.

  3. Primordial Black Hole mass growth from neutrinos during the radiation era

    astro-ph.CO 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    PBHs of ~1e3–1e7 solar masses can significantly grow by absorbing neutrinos before matter-radiation equality.

  4. Constraints on primordial black holes from the first part of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA fourth observing run

    astro-ph.CO 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0 of 10

    O4a gravitational-wave data give 95% CL upper limits f_PBH ~ 1e-2 to 1e-4 for monochromatic primordial black holes with mean masses 0.6-100 M_sun, with no evidence of a PBH merger component.

  5. Primordial Black Hole from Tensor-induced Density Fluctuation: First-order Phase Transitions and Domain Walls

    astro-ph.CO 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0 of 10

    Tensor perturbations from FOPT and domain-wall sources are claimed to induce second-order scalar perturbations large enough to form primordial black holes, potentially all of the dark matter.

  6. Are Primordial Black Holes Truly Fine-Tuned?

    astro-ph.CO 2025-12 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Using a normalized sensitivity measure γ=c/c̄, the authors find γ≈1 for three single-field ultra-slow-roll inflation models and conclude PBH production is not technically unnatural.

  7. Influence of supermassive primordial black holes on ultraviolet luminosity of high-redshift galaxies

    astro-ph.GA 2025-09 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Fitting a model of supermassive primordial black holes to JWST data at z=11 reproduces the excess of bright galaxies, but the agreement reflects parameter tuning rather than an independent test.

  8. Implications for Pulsar Timing Arrays of Sub-solar Black Hole Detections: From LVK to Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer

    astro-ph.CO 2025-08 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    A Bayesian analysis shows that a future sub-solar PBH detection would make the primordial SIGW interpretation of PTA data favored over the SMBH interpretation, but this preference is driven by the detection prior.

  9. Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Holes formed by Null Energy Condition Violation during Inflation

    gr-qc 2026-02 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    A transient null-energy-condition violation during inflation is shown to produce a four-component gravitational-wave background — primordial, scalar-induced, PBH ringdown, and binary-merger — with only the solar-mass ...

  10. January Food Benchmark (JFB): A Public Benchmark Dataset and Evaluation Suite for Multimodal Food Analysis

    cs.CV 2025-08 reject novelty 4.0 of 10

    The abstract promises a food-image benchmark and a winning model, but the manuscript pages contain only a different paper on primordial black holes, leaving every benchmark claim unsubstantiated.

  11. Whispers from the Early Universe: The Ringdown of Primordial Black Holes

    astro-ph.CO 2025-07 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    The stochastic gravitational wave background from primordial black hole ringdown could be observable by future pulsar timing arrays for solar-mass and heavier black holes, with binary merger signals within reach of ne...

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