Distinguishing binary black hole precessional morphologies with gravitational wave observations

The precessional motion of binary black holes can be classified into one of three morphologies, based on the evolution of the angle between the components of the spins in the orbital plane: Circulating, librating around 0, and librating around $\pi$. These different morphologies can be related to the binary's formation channel and are imprinted in the binary's gravitational wave signal. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian model selection method to determine the preferred spin morphology of a detected binary black hole. The method involves a fast calculation of the morphology which allows us to restrict to a specific morphology in the Bayesian stochastic sampling. We investigate the prospects for distinguishing between the different morphologies using gravitational waves in the Advanced LIGO/Advanced Virgo network with their plus-era sensitivities. For this, we consider fiducial high- and low-mass binaries having different spin magnitudes and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). We find that in the cases with high spin and high SNR, the true morphology is strongly favored with $\log_{10}$ Bayes factors $\gtrsim 4$ compared to both alternative morphologies when the binary's parameters are not close to the boundary between morphologies. However, when the binary parameters are close to the boundary between morphologies, only one alternative morphology is strongly disfavored. In the low-spin, high-SNR cases, the true morphology is still favored with a $\log_{10}$ Bayes factor $\sim 2$ compared to one alternative morphology. We also consider the gravitational wave signal from GW200129_065458 that has some evidence for precession (modulo data quality issues) and find that there is no preference for a specific morphology. Our method for restricting the prior to a given morphology is publicly available through an easy-to-use Python package called bbh_spin_morphology_prior. (Abridged)