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Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series

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arxiv 2401.03955 v8 pith:MERUZSDQ submitted 2024-01-08 cs.LG cs.AI

Vijay Ekambaram , Arindam Jati , Pankaj Dayama , Sumanta Mukherjee , Nam H. Nguyen , Wesley M. Gifford , Chandra Reddy , Jayant Kalagnanam This is my paper
classification cs.LGcs.AI
keywords forecastingmodelsfew-shottimezerohttpshuggingfacemodel
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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Large pre-trained models excel in zero/few-shot learning for language and vision tasks but face challenges in multivariate time series (TS) forecasting due to diverse data characteristics. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on developing pre-trained TS forecasting models. These models, whether built from scratch or adapted from large language models (LLMs), excel in zero/few-shot forecasting tasks. However, they are limited by slow performance, high computational demands, and neglect of cross-channel and exogenous correlations. To address this, we introduce Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a compact model (starting from 1M parameters) with effective transfer learning capabilities, trained exclusively on public TS datasets. TTM, based on the light-weight TSMixer architecture, incorporates innovations like adaptive patching, diverse resolution sampling, and resolution prefix tuning to handle pre-training on varied dataset resolutions with minimal model capacity. Additionally, it employs multi-level modeling to capture channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning. TTM outperforms existing popular benchmarks in zero/few-shot forecasting by (4-40%), while reducing computational requirements significantly. Moreover, TTMs are lightweight and can be executed even on CPU-only machines, enhancing usability and fostering wider adoption in resource-constrained environments. The model weights for reproducibility and research use are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm/ttm-research-r2/, while enterprise-use weights under the Apache license can be accessed as follows: the initial TTM-Q variant at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r1, and the latest variants (TTM-B, TTM-E, TTM-A) weights are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2.

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Cited by 9 Pith papers

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