Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs

As of 19 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 29 of 29 outbound references and 1 inbound Pith citation observation for arXiv:2504.13644.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2504.13644 v1

Coverage vector

measured 29 of 29 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.073693Z

measured 30 of 30 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00

measured 1 of 1 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-05-11T01:02:34.197356Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-11T04:50:56.949503Z

Reference resolution

29 of 29 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy3
unresolved26
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 5062c667-55f6-40cb-8ba7-86416b53cec2 · outbound

This paper cites Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.543743Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4e2f1f94-1500-4edc-b344-bb6cea16bc87 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.506059Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation a52003bb-b3f9-4209-8e70-fdd7986a0d36 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.487560Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation a01e0a7d-034a-4436-bddf-11ff62d92dd5 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.345850Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation ca919468-6059-4793-bef8-c60796fd0687 · outbound

This paper cites A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.648262Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 27ce2e2d-2ffa-493e-8e87-423a98958895 · outbound

This paper cites Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.732075Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 04f2e6de-5bb6-4b27-b72c-a36c739d502e · outbound

This paper cites Mixtral of Experts.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Mixtral of Experts

Reference 13

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.790151Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7e3b1b49-de61-496a-b851-588398049b96 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.054197Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation d2fbaf20-ec65-4cb3-b12b-59153d23f2eb · outbound

This paper cites Holistic Evaluation of Language Models.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Holistic Evaluation of Language Models

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.813142Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation cd334a9c-1989-4a4b-9513-3f46bf0781bf · outbound

This paper cites Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.819127Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f2a20326-1365-43a0-8a85-8879b4eaa991 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.965032Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 2268e5dd-2a12-4401-b25c-d1425b8b31e9 · outbound

This paper cites Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology

Reference 20

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.888675Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ce7d35d3-53c7-477b-adcf-9fb91902cf8d · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.933914Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 3c460b8c-1dce-4ff5-8974-cf5b70ecc531 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 22

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.858034Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 508108da-abaf-42d4-8b0c-78b701a86402 · outbound

This paper cites Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.959342Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation bb1c8036-e2fb-453e-9dea-a2e4e2b5f1d0 · outbound

This paper cites Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.966348Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 57228b10-1a5a-4a1d-85b4-f86fc178ad6a · outbound

This paper cites RCAgent: Cloud Root Cause Analysis by Autonomous Agents with Tool-Augmented Large Language Models.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs RCAgent: Cloud Root Cause Analysis by Autonomous Agents with Tool-Augmented Large Language Models

Reference 25

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.029453Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 07be7ce0-5285-4046-bb36-5fe4fd54c65a · outbound

This paper cites H.; Le, Q.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs H.; Le, Q

Reference 26

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.765557Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 0858f640-b8a1-4e3c-b54c-ea9d5b74e13a · outbound

This paper cites From Word Models to World Models: Translating from Natural Language to the Probabilistic Language of Thought.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs From Word Models to World Models: Translating from Natural Language to the Probabilistic Language of Thought

Reference 27

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.058738Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a85c5512-df0b-416d-9aac-05ef408e1983 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 28

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.661009Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 1df2a430-eee6-49ec-84c8-a291eef0ad00 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 29

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.551943Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 5f48780c-46ac-4308-ad7b-909d7e9e8387 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 1963

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.072108Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation f445760d-b599-4f5e-b675-d01699ab994a · outbound

This paper cites M., and Ross, T.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs M., and Ross, T

Reference 2011

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.622642Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 6872e8a1-64df-45c8-a834-033abd199d3c · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 2019

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.712017Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 3828af90-7bf0-44d9-a63e-e4d61dab168a · outbound

This paper cites Language Models are Few-Shot Learners.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Language Models are Few-Shot Learners

Reference 2020

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.489106Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation dc1a0515-fffa-4360-ac6e-f355e4c6208a · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 2021

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.224611Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation fbae0db2-82cb-4e30-bc01-55bcf896b4dc · outbound

This paper cites S.; Reid, M.; Matsuo, Y .; and Iwa- sawa, Y.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs S.; Reid, M.; Matsuo, Y .; and Iwa- sawa, Y

Reference 2022

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.138547Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 0e5854d4-55ed-4c32-9884-bf33ab309903 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work

Reference 2023

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.640798Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.

Observation 09d7a398-6b19-4dfa-ba7f-9db9d4db069b · outbound

This paper cites The Llama 3 Herd of Models.

Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs The Llama 3 Herd of Models

Reference 2024

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.632308Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

Observation f0fe3703-21de-4509-a7f8-d11925275a4d · inbound

Can LLMs Take Retrieved Information with a Grain of Salt? cites this paper.

Can LLMs Take Retrieved Information with a Grain of Salt? Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs

Reference 5

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T04:50:56.955018Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-19T06:32:44.657259+00:00.