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Stellar Velocity Dispersion versus Age: Consistency across Observations and Simulations, with the Milky Way as an Outlier

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-07 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read The Milky Way's stellar velocity dispersion versus age, normalized by its rotation speed, is 2–3 times lower than nearly every other observed nearby disk galaxy, making it a kinematic outlier.

desk verdict A useful synthesis of sigma–age data, but the MW-outlier claim is not fully established because the observed comparison ignores the radial mismatch between the solar circle and inner-disk apertures. read the letter →

arxiv 2506.11840 v1 pith:HILMTCAV submitted 2025-06-13 astro-ph.GA

Fiona McCluskey , Andrew Wetzel , Sarah Loebman , Jorge Moreno This is my paper
classification astro-ph.GA
keywords stellarvelocitydispersionage-velocityrelationMilkyWaykinematicsdiskgalaxyformationdynamicalheatingFIRE-2simulationsPHANGS-MUSEkinematicoutlier
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper tries to establish that the Milky Way's stellar velocity dispersion–age relation, normalized by rotation speed, is unusually cold compared with other star-forming disk galaxies, and that this is not an artifact of different measurement methods. By compiling observations of the Milky Way, M31, M33, and 16 PHANGS galaxies, and by using FIRE-2 simulations to test how age errors, aperture size, radius, and inclination bias measurements, the paper argues that the Milky Way sits 2–3 times below the norm at most stellar ages. If true, the Milky Way's early-forming disk and quiescent merger record are atypical among Milky Way-mass disk galaxies, and cosmological simulations that reproduce typical galaxies will generally not reproduce the Milky Way.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing metric is the dimensionless ratio $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$: the stellar velocity dispersion of stars of age $\tau$, scaled by the galaxy's present-day rotation velocity. This ratio normalizes out the order-of-magnitude range of stellar masses among the compared galaxies. The argument is carried by a matched comparison in which FIRE-2 simulations are post-processed to reproduce each observational survey's aperture radius, inclination angle, radial selection, and age binning, and the Milky Way's three-dimensional dispersion is converted to a one-dimensional value by assuming isotropy. The measurement-effect tests quantify how much each systematic could shift $\sigma(\tau)$, bounding the comparison against the claim that the Milky Way is a genuine outlier.

What would settle it

Apply the same aperture-based stellar-population method used for external galaxies to the Milky Way's own data by forward-modeling Gaia and APOGEE stellar measurements into mock spectra and fitting them as PHANGS-MUSE does, then re-measure $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$; if the matched-method comparison shrinks the Milky Way's gap from 2–3 times to below about 1.5 times, the outlier claim fails. Alternatively, measure resolved-star $\sigma(\tau)$ in several dozen Milky Way-mass disk galaxies to test whether similarly cold disks are rare.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central discovery is that when stellar velocity dispersion is measured as a function of stellar age and divided by the galaxy's present-day rotation velocity, $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$, the Milky Way is dramatically colder than all but one of the 19 nearby disk galaxies studied. M31, M33, and the average PHANGS galaxy all agree with each other and with the FIRE-2 simulations, while the Milky Way lies a factor of 2–3 below them at most ages. The paper argues this offset is physical rather than methodological, because measurement effects such as age uncertainties of up to 40%, aperture size, galactocentric radius, and inclination change $\sigma(\tau)$ by at most a factor of about 2 for young stars and less for old stars. In this reading, the Milky Way's unusually cold kinematics reflect its early disk formation and the absence of recent major mergers.

Load-bearing premise

The classification assumes that the velocity-dispersion measurements are comparable across galaxies even though the Milky Way's values come from individual stars in a small local volume converted to a one-dimensional value by assuming isotropy, while other galaxies' values come from aperture-integrated light over larger areas at various viewing angles.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the Milky Way is a kinematic outlier, cosmological zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-mass galaxies are not expected to match the Milky Way; across 59 simulated galaxies from seven simulation suites, only one, h277, matches its $\sigma(\tau)$.
  • FIRE-2's agreement with M31, M33, and the older stellar populations of PHANGS implies that typical disk heating is reasonably captured by current simulations.
  • The apparent discrepancy between FIRE-2 and young PHANGS stars is likely an instrumental effect from MUSE's spectral resolution, not a physical mismatch.
  • Merger signatures in $\sigma(\tau)$ require age uncertainties of about 10% or better, so inferred merger histories from this relation depend strongly on age precision.
  • Benchmarking galaxy formation models only against the Milky Way is risky; the larger samples of M31, M33, and PHANGS provide better testbeds for typical disk evolution.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A direct extension would be to measure $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$ for a larger sample of resolved, low-star-formation galaxies to test whether Milky Way-like cold disks are rare or simply under-represented in the current sample.
  • The paper's isotropy assumption for the Milky Way could be checked against measured velocity-anisotropy ratios; a different conversion would shift the outlier factor by tens of percent, though probably not enough to erase the 2–3 times gap.
  • The correlation between low star formation rate and cold kinematics seen in the Milky Way, NGC 1433, and h277 suggests a testable prediction: galaxies that have sustained low star formation for several gigayears should show systematically lower $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$, which could be tested with larger integral-field surveys.
  • If age uncertainties in the Milky Way's oldest stars are underestimated, the inferred early-disk formation time could be biased; comparing asteroseismic and isochrone ages for the same stars would provide a direct check.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. The paper compiles and compares existing measurements of the stellar velocity dispersion-age relation, σ(τ), for the Milky Way (13 literature analyses), M31, M33, and 16 PHANGS-MUSE galaxies, normalizing each by the present-day rotation velocity to obtain σ(τ)/vφ,0. Against this sample the MW appears kinematically colder by a factor of 2-3 at fixed age, with only NGC 1433 reaching MW-like values; the authors conclude that the MW is a kinematic outlier. Using 11 FIRE-2 zoom-in simulations, the paper quantifies how age uncertainties, aperture size, galactocentric radius, and inclination affect measured σ(τ), and it re-derives for each observational comparison the appropriate aperture sizes, radii, inclinations, and age binning. FIRE-2 agrees with M31, M33, and PHANGS at old ages, but its average σ(τ)/vφ,0 is roughly 2-3 times higher than the MW, with only rare individual solar-neighborhood apertures matching it. The paper concludes that cosmological zoom-in simulations reproduce typical observed disk galaxies but rarely the MW, because of the MW's early disk formation and quiescent merger history.

Significance. If the central claim is correct, the paper makes an important and actionable point: the MW is atypical among MW-mass disk galaxies in its kinematic coldness, so benchmarking galaxy formation simulations only against the MW is potentially misleading. The paper's strengths are substantial: the measurement-effects analysis (Sec. 3) is systematic and reusable; the simulation comparisons (Sec. 4.4) carefully match aperture, radius, inclination, and binning to each observational work; the compilations in Tables 2-3 and Fig. 6 are a useful resource; and the paper is unusually candid about its own caveats (no MHD/cosmic rays/AGN, no synthetic observations, MUSE resolution bias, non-independent MW analyses). The remaining gaps are in the observational outlier claim itself: no formal statistical test, no propagated error budget, and no quantitative treatment of the radial-selection mismatch between the MW anchor and the PHANGS inner-disk measurements, despite the paper quantifying exactly this effect in Sec. 3.3. These gaps affect the headline '2-3x' factor and the 'strong outlier' language, though the qualitative conclusion appears likely to survive the corrections.

major comments (3)
  1. [§4.3/Fig. 7; §3.3/Fig. 4] The observed comparison that defines the outlier claim does not account for where in each galaxy σ(τ) is measured. The MW relation is anchored at R ≈ 8 kpc (§4.4.2; most MW surveys in Table 3 are solar-neighborhood or R = 7-9 kpc samples), whereas PHANGS-MUSE measures within 0.25-0.30 R25, i.e., ≈ 3.75-4.25 kpc for the sample's mean R25 ≈ 15 kpc (Appendix B.3); M31 spans ≈ 5-14 kpc and M33 ≈ 1.5-9 kpc. The paper's own Fig. 4 shows σ3D increasing inward by 1.5-2x from R = 12 to 2 kpc, with the strongest gradient for stars younger than 100 Myr and a milder but nonzero gradient for 0.4-6 Gyr stars. The FIRE-2 comparisons in §4.4 match radial selections per galaxy, but the observed comparison in Fig. 7 never applies a radius correction or a quantitative bound, and §4.3 lists only age-binning as a complicating factor. My estimate from Fig. 4 is that the residual radial bias between R ≈ 8 kpc (MW) and R ≈ 4 kpc (PHANGS) is roughly 5-15% at the ages where MW data actually exist (0.4-6 Gyr), rising to ~30% for stars younger than 100 Myr; the exact value should be computed from the simulations rather than read off by eye, but it is evidently smaller than the factor needed to erase the 2.3-3.3x offset already visible against M31 at roughly matched radii. The qualitative conclusion likely survives, but the quantitative '2-3x' claim requires either applying the Fig. 4 gradients to the observed values or explicitly bounding the effect, and I request that this step be added.
  2. [§4.3/Fig. 7; §5.2.1] The headline classification 'the MW is a kinematic outlier' is not accompanied by any statistical test or propagated error budget. The MW band in Figs. 6-7 is the max-min range across 13 literature analyses that are strongly non-independent: the GCS-based studies share one catalog, and several post-Gaia studies reuse overlapping APOGEE/Kepler/K2 samples, so the band is a systematic spread across methods, not a random uncertainty. The PHANGS 68% scatter at fixed age is reported to be about twice the MW value, which is a large spread; the statement that 15/16 PHANGS galaxies exceed the MW by a factor of at least 1.5 is helpful, but it is a threshold count rather than a significance measure and does not account for correlated uncertainties. The reader cannot judge how far the MW sits below the PHANGS distribution without a statement of its percentile or its distance in units of the age-matched sample scatter. Additionally, vφ,0 in Table 2 uses three different definitions (MW circular velocity at the solar position; maximum rotation of the youngest stars for M31 and M33; CO-based peak rotation for PHANGS), and the assertion in §4.3 that these 'generally yield values within a few percent of each other' is not demonstrated. The isotropy assumption for the MW is handled better (§4.3 gives 10-25% estimates), but it is still not propagated into the final ratio. Please report the ratio with an explicit, end-to-end uncertainty that includes the MW analysis spread, the vφ,0 definitional systematics, and the measurement effects quantified in Sec. 3, and state the MW's rank or percentile within the age-matched comparison sample.
  3. [§4.4.2, Fig. 9; Abstract] The magnitude of the FIRE-2/MW offset is quoted inconsistently: the abstract says the average σ(τ)/vφ,0 in FIRE-2 is 'about two times higher' than the MW, §4.4.2 says 'the typical σ(τ)/vφ,0 is ≈ 3 times larger in FIRE-2 than in the MW across all ages', and §5.2.1 says 'typically 2-3× higher'. These statements are not equivalent, and the figures suggest the offset is strongly age-dependent, with the youngest stars agreeing better. Because this number is the paper's headline quantitative result, please define it precisely (for example, the median of the aperture-level ratios across a stated age range in σ/vφ,0), give the value with its scatter, and use the same value in the abstract and in the summary. Relatedly, Fig. 9 shows that rare individual apertures can match the MW at a given age but none matches across all ages; the paper should state explicitly whether this rarity is quantified, for instance as the fraction of apertures whose σ/vφ,0 falls within the MW band as a function of age.
minor comments (5)
  1. [§5.2.3] The claim that among 59 zoom-in galaxies across seven suites only h277 matches the MW's σ(τ) is a strong statement, but it is supported only by prose and no table, figure, or uniform quantitative criterion (such as an RMS deviation per galaxy); please add a summary table or figure so that this literature-based claim is checkable.
  2. [§4.3] Please clarify whether the Aumer & Binney (2009) and Tarricq et al. (2021) young-star measurements are included in the MW band of Fig. 7 or are cited only as additional qualitative evidence; Table 3 lists 13 analyses, but these two are discussed as supporting the coldness of young MW stars.
  3. [§4.3, Table 2] The sentence 'these different methods generally yield values within a few percent of each other' (referring to the vφ,0 definitions) should cite a comparison or provide a brief test; as written it is an unsupported claim in a section whose purpose is to put measurements on equal footing.
  4. [§3.1] The age-uncertainty model (Gaussian, symmetric, fractional) is a sensible first step, but real age errors are heteroscedastic, often asymmetric, and correlated with distance and metallicity; a sentence acknowledging this and arguing that the <20% effect on σ at fixed age survives more realistic error models would strengthen the conclusion.
  5. [Various] Typographical and formatting slips to fix: 'as the MW¿' in the §5.1 bullet list; 'We know discuss works' in Appendix B.4 (should be 'We now discuss'); 'PHANGS-MUSSE sample' in §5.2.3; and the caption of Fig. 1 ('with M90 star today in each corner') appears to be missing a mass-unit label.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 2.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the MW-outlier claim is grounded in external observations, and FIRE-2 is used as an independent benchmark rather than as a fitted input.

full rationale

The central claim that the Milky Way is a kinematic outlier is derived from Figure 7, which compiles externally measured σ(τ)/vφ,0 for the MW, M31, M33, and 16 PHANGS galaxies. This comparison does not depend on FIRE-2 for its existence: the MW's low ratio relative to external galaxies is a statement about the published observational data themselves. FIRE-2 is used for two distinct purposes: (i) to quantify how measurement effects such as aperture size, galactocentric radius, inclination, and age uncertainties alter inferred σ(τ), and (ii) as a separate cosmological benchmark to see whether simulations reproduce the observed relations. The measurement-effect analysis uses stated choices (e.g., 20% age uncertainties, 250 pc apertures, R=8 kpc) rather than parameters fitted to the MW, so the later FIRE-2-versus-MW comparison is not a prediction from a fit to the target. The paper repeatedly cites McCluskey et al. (2024) for the FIRE-2 disk-era framework and for prior analyses of these simulations, but those self-citations are not load-bearing for the outlier classification: the outlier conclusion would stand even if those interpretive results were removed, because it rests on the direct observational comparison. The radial-gradient mismatch noted by the skeptic (comparing solar-circle MW data with inner-disk PHANGS/M31/M33 measurements) is a quantitative systematic concern about the size of the outlier factor, not a circularity: the paper does not define any quantity in terms of the conclusion, and no fitted parameter is renamed as a prediction. The paper itself acknowledges in Section 5.2.2 that it did not perform synthetic observations including dust and selection effects, which is an honest limitation rather than a circular step. Overall, the derivation chain is self-contained with respect to the central claim; the only reason the score is not 0 is the presence of several non-load-bearing self-citations to the authors' previous FIRE-2 work.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 4 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim does not rest on any fitted model parameters. It depends on the comparability of heterogeneous observational datasets and on the fidelity of the FIRE-2 simulations, which the paper itself enumerates as caveats. No new physical entities are introduced.

assumptions (4)
  • domain assumption FIRE-2 simulations faithfully represent stellar kinematics of MW-mass disk galaxies.
    Invoked throughout Methods and Section 4.4. The paper itself notes missing MHD, cosmic rays, and AGN feedback, so this is a stated, load-bearing approximation.
  • domain assumption Literature measurements of σ(τ) for the MW, M31, M33, and PHANGS are reliable as published.
    Section 4 compiles 13 MW analyses and three external datasets without independent re-reduction or re-calibration of the original data.
  • domain assumption The MW's σ3D can be converted to an isotropic 1D value σ3D/√3 for comparison with external LOS measurements.
    Section 4.3; the paper states the MW is anisotropic but argues the error is within 25% and cannot explain the factor of 2-3 offset.
  • domain assumption vφ,0 values from different sources and definitions are comparable to within a few percent.
    Section 4.3 and Table 2 use CO rotation curve peaks (PHANGS), maximum rotation of young stars (M31/M33), and circular velocity at the solar radius (MW) as equivalent normalizations.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Stellar Velocity Dispersion versus Age: Consistency across Observations and Simulations, with the Milky Way as an Outlier." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/HILMTCAV

@misc{pith2026250611840,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Stellar Velocity Dispersion versus Age: Consistency across Observations and Simulations, with the Milky Way as an Outlier},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/HILMTCAV}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2506.11840}
}
abstract

Within disk galaxies, the velocity dispersion, $\sigma$, of stars increases with age, $\tau$, as measured in the Milky Way (MW) and nearby galaxies. This relation provides a key window into galactic formation history, tracing both the kinematics of stars at birth and the dynamical heating of stars after birth. We compile and compare observational measurements of the MW, M31, M33, and 16 galaxies from the PHANGS survey. The MW exhibits significantly colder stellar kinematics, with 2-3 times lower $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$ at a given age, than all but one other observed galaxy. Therefore, the MW is a kinematic outlier. To assess how measurement effects influence $\sigma(\tau)$, we analyze the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations, quantifying the impact of uncertainties in stellar age, aperture size, galactocentric radius, and galaxy inclination. Aperture size and galactocentric radius affect $\sigma(\tau)$ by up to a factor of $\approx2$ for stars younger than 100 Myr, with milder effects on older stars. Age uncertainties up to 40\% change the \textit{value} of $\sigma(\tau)$ at a given age by $\lesssim20\%$ but can reshape the relation with age and erase merger signatures. We compare $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$ in FIRE-2 simulations with observations. FIRE-2 agrees well with M31 and M33 at all measured ages, and with PHANGS for stars older than $\approx500$ Myr. The average $\sigma(\tau)/v_{\phi,0}$ in FIRE-2 is about two times higher than the MW at most ages, but the youngest stars show better agreement. The velocity ratios ($\sigma_{\phi}/\sigma_{R}$, $\sigma_{Z}/\sigma_{\phi}$, $\sigma_{Z}/\sigma_{R}$) in FIRE-2 broadly agree with the MW. We conclude that $\sigma(\tau)$ in FIRE-2, and most cosmological zoom-in simulations, reasonably matches observed nearby galaxies, but matching the MW is rare, because it is a kinematic outlier.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2506.11840 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. — Stellar 3D velocity dispersion versus age in 4 representative galaxies, with M90 star today in each corner. We measure σ3D at R = 8 kpc, imposing fractional uncertainties on stellar ages of 0%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 40%. σ3D generally increases with age, reflecting the disk settling over time and the dynamical heating of stars after birth. m12m (top left) show a nearly linear relation, largely unaffected by age uncert… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. — The impact of stellar age uncertainties on the measured velocity dispersion. The ratio of σ using different age uncertainties to its value without any age uncertainty, for σ3D, σR, σϕ, and σZ . Lines show the average across our 11 galaxies, and shaded regions show their corresponding 16-84th percentile range (for 10% and 40% age uncertainties). The shaded vertical bars indicate when these galaxies transitioned, on… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. — Effect of aperture radius, rap, on the measured 3D velocity dispersion, σ3D. We measure σ3D in cylindrical apertures of radius rap and |Z| < 3 kpc across an annulus cen￾tered at R = 8 kpc. We average across 11 FIRE-2 galaxies, and the shaded region shows the galaxy-to-galaxy standard deviation. Top: The median of σ3D versus rap for stars of different ages, normalized by the value for a large aperture of rap = 2 kp… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (7 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: — Effect of galaxy radial selection on the mea￾sured 3D velocity dispersion. σ3D, normalized to its value at R = 12 kpc, for stars of different ages. σ3D increases towards the inner galaxy, with the youngest stars (age ≲ 100 Myr) having the strongest radial dependence,…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: — The impact of galaxy inclination angle on the line-of-sight velocity dispersion. σLOS, normalized to its value for a face-on galaxy (0◦), versus inclination angle for stars of vari￾ous ages. Circles show where σLOS = σ3D/ √ 3. For reference, tri￾angles at right mark …
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: — Compilation of stellar velocity dispersion versus age observed for the Milky Way. “Warm” colored points show works that included all stars, while “cool” colored points show works that separated stars into high-α (unfilled markers) and low-α (filled markers). Solid li…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: — Comparison of stellar velocity dispersion versus age in nearby galaxies. Top: The line-of-sight (1D) velocity dispersion of stars, σ1D, versus age, as observed in the MW, M31 (Dorman et al. 2015), M33 (Quirk et al. 2022), and 16 nearby galaxies from the PHANGS survey…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: — Comparison of stellar σ1D/vϕ,0 versus age in the FIRE-2 simulations against observations of M31, M33, and 16 galaxies from the PHANGS-MUSE survey. We emphasize that while σ1D depends on stellar age, vϕ,0 is constant: In measuring FIRE-2, we match the inclination angl…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: — Comparing stellar σ(τ)/vϕ,0 versus age, τ, in the FIRE-2 simulations against observations of the MW for σ3D, σR, σϕ, and σZ . The solid white lines show the mean σ(τ)/vϕ,0, assuming 20% age uncertainties, across all ”solar neighborhood” apertures in 11 simulations, w…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: — Comparing the ratios of different components of the velocity dispersion versus age in FIRE-2 and the MW. Each white line shows the mean across all “solar neighborhood” apertures in the 11 simulations, and each shaded region shows the 68% aperture-to-aperture scatter…

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 7, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.