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The mass of TOI-654 b: A short-period sub-Neptune transiting a mid-M dwarf

T0 review · 0 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-06 · deepseek-v4-flash

Pith's one-line read TOI-654 b, a 1.53-day sub-Neptune around a mid-M dwarf, is measured to have 8.71 Earth masses and an updated radius of 2.378 Earth radii.

desk verdict A clean, standard RV+transit measurement that gives TOI-654 b its first direct mass; worth a serious referee, with data-release as the main condition. read the letter →

arxiv 2507.16222 v1 pith:RJSZPP43 submitted 2025-07-22 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR

classification astro-ph.EPastro-ph.SR
keywords sub-NeptuneexoplanetmassmeasurementradialvelocitytransitphotometryMdwarfradiusvalleyNeptunedesertplanetcomposition
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

TOI-654 b is a 1.53-day sub-Neptune transiting a mid-M dwarf, and this paper sets its mass rather than relying on a radius-only estimate. Using Subaru/IRD radial velocities plus TESS and MuSCAT transit photometry, the authors report $M_p = 8.71 \pm 1.25 M_\oplus$ and an updated $R_p = 2.378 \pm 0.089 R_\oplus$. The implied mean density of $3.59 \pm 0.65$ g cm$^{-3}$ is high enough to exclude a substantial hydrogen envelope, yet it leaves two compositions open: a rocky core with a thin H/He layer or a volatile-rich water core. Because TOI-654 b sits near the M-dwarf radius valley and on the outer edge of the Neptune desert, a precise mass here helps decide which formation and loss mechanisms carve out those regions.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing measurement is the radial-velocity semi-amplitude $K = 8.62^{+1.22}_{-1.23}$ m s$^{-1}$ extracted from 85 Subaru/IRD spectra, combined in a joint transit-plus-RV model and sampled with a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo scheme. The transit side uses TESS photometry from six sectors and ground-based MuSCAT2/MuSCAT3 multicolor light curves, with a Matérn-3/2 Gaussian-process baseline (a smooth, time-correlated noise model) for the ground-based data. Stellar mass and radius come from empirical mass-luminosity and radius-luminosity relations plus spectral energy distribution fitting, giving $M_s = 0.419 \pm 0.009 M_\odot$ and $R_s = 0.430 \pm 0.013 R_\odot$; since $M_p \propto M_s^{2/3}$ and $R_p \propto R_s$, these stellar calibrations directly set the headline planetary values.

What would settle it

A direct measurement of the stellar angular diameter by long-baseline interferometry, or an asteroseismic radius that contradicts $R_s = 0.430 \pm 0.013 R_\odot$, would rescale the planet's radius linearly; likewise, a larger independent RV dataset that moved $K$ outside $8.62^{+1.22}_{-1.23}$ m s$^{-1}$ would change the mass. If either measurement pushed the derived density outside $3.59 \pm 0.65$ g cm$^{-3}$, the composition interpretation would need revision.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central result is a measured planetary mass of $M_p = 8.71 \pm 1.25 M_\oplus$ and an updated radius of $R_p = 2.378 \pm 0.089 R_\oplus$ from a joint fit of the transit light curves and the IRD radial velocities, with the circular-orbit model favored slightly over an eccentric one ($\Delta \log Z = 0.158$). The paper reports that the resulting bulk density, $\rho_p = 3.59 \pm 0.65$ g cm$^{-3}$, places TOI-654 b equally close to a rocky core plus roughly 0.3 wt\% hydrogen envelope and to a 50 wt\% rock / 50 wt\% water composition under the relevant temperature. The radius precision improves from 5.3\% to 3.7\% relative to the earlier validation, and the updated Transmission and Emission Spectroscopy Metrics (TSM $= 49 \pm 8$, ESM $= 11 \pm 1$) make the planet a viable emission-spectroscopy target for JWST and Ariel, though not a strong transmission-spectroscopy target.

Load-bearing premise

The adopted stellar mass and radius come from empirical brightness-to-size relations rather than direct measurement, so a systematic error there would shift the planet's mass and radius in lockstep.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • TOI-654 b's density of $3.59 \pm 0.65$ g cm$^{-3}$ excludes a purely hydrogen-dominated sub-Neptune and restricts any H/He envelope to a small fraction of the planet's mass.
  • At $P = 1.53$ days and $R_p = 2.378 R_\oplus$, the planet sits near the M-dwarf radius valley and on the outer edge of the Neptune desert, so its measured mass anchors both population features around a single object.
  • The improved stellar radius shrinks the planetary radius uncertainty from 5.3\% to 3.7\%, tightening the target list for JWST and Ariel emission spectroscopy.
  • The updated TSM and ESM values ($49 \pm 8$ and $11 \pm 1$) show the planet is better suited to secondary-eclipse emission observations than to transmission spectroscopy.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the mass holds up, TOI-654 b becomes a useful discriminator for M-dwarf radius-valley models: a dense, sub-Neptune-sized planet close to the valley is more naturally explained by photoevaporative stripping of a primordial envelope than by gas-poor formation, though the paper does not choose between these.
  • A single JWST emission spectrum, or one more transit observed in transmission, could break the rock-plus-envelope versus water-world degeneracy that the current density cannot resolve; this is the paper's own suggested next step and is within reach.
  • The He I 1083 nm data taken during the MuSCAT3 transit, reported in a forthcoming companion paper, may connect atmospheric escape to the planet's position in the Neptune desert, but that connection is not established here.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

0 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper reports follow-up characterization of the transiting sub-Neptune TOI-654 b (P = 1.528 d) around a mid-M dwarf. Using TESS and MuSCAT2/MuSCAT3 photometry combined with 85 Subaru/IRD radial-velocity measurements, the authors perform a joint transit+RV fit and derive a planet mass of 8.71 ± 1.25 M_Earth from a 7σ semi-amplitude K = 8.62 ± 1.22 m/s, an updated radius of 2.378 ± 0.089 R_Earth, and a mean density of 3.59 ± 0.65 g/cm3. Stellar parameters are obtained from empirical mass/radius-luminosity relations and an SED fit; activity indicators show no significant signal at the planet period, and a circular orbit is favored over an eccentric one by ΔlnZ = 0.158. The paper discusses the resulting composition degeneracy (rocky core + H/He envelope vs. water-rich), the planet's position near the radius valley and the Neptune desert, and its potential for JWST/Ariel follow-up.

Significance. This is a useful addition to the small sample of M-dwarf sub-Neptunes with precisely measured masses and radii. The RV detection is robust (K = 8.62 ± 1.22 m/s, FAP < 0.1%), the activity analysis is careful, and the circular/eccentric model comparison gives consistent masses, so the central claim is well supported. The paper uses public modeling tools (jaxoplanet, tinygp, emcee, NumPyro) and explicitly reports a model-evidence comparison. I find no circularity: the mass comes from the RV semi-amplitude and an independently adopted stellar mass, not from the same data used to derive the transit parameters. The main limitation is that the adopted stellar radius and mass inherit possible systematics from empirical relations, but the SED-based radius is consistent, and the impact on M_p is small (M_p ∝ M_s^(2/3)). Overall, the paper delivers a solid, timely characterization.

minor comments (6)
  1. [3.1.2 / Table 1] The SED-derived radius (0.422+0.011/−0.009 R_sun) is statistically consistent with the adopted empirical value (0.430 ± 0.013 R_sun), but the empirical value is chosen without explanation. Please add one sentence justifying this choice, and state whether systematic errors in the Mann et al. mass/radius relations are included in the quoted uncertainties.
  2. [Data availability] The paper does not include a data availability statement or machine-readable tables of the 85 IRD radial velocities and the TESS/MuSCAT2/MuSCAT3 light curves used in the joint fit. Given that the IRD spectra are not public, releasing the derived RVs (and preferably the jaxoplanet model configuration) would greatly aid independent verification.
  3. [Abstract] The abstract contains a duplicated word: 'radius valley and and also on the outer edge'.
  4. [4.1] The phrase 'one of unique planets' should be 'one of the unique planets' or better 'one of a small number of planets'.
  5. [3.2.3] The ΔlnZ value of 0.158 between the circular and eccentric models corresponds to 'not worth more than a bare mention' in the Kass & Raftery (1995) scale. Please state explicitly that the two models are statistically indistinguishable and that the choice of the circular model as the fiducial model does not affect the quoted mass, only the eccentricity-related caveats.
  6. [3.1.2] The explicit caveat that the Teff uncertainty does not include stellar-model systematics is appreciated; consider also noting the potential effect on the limb-darkening priors, even though the adopted 3× wider priors should render it negligible.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the planet mass and radius rest on independent RV, transit, and stellar-calibration inputs, with no load-bearing self-citation or fitted-input-as-prediction step.

full rationale

The derivation chain for the central claim is self-contained and does not reduce to its own inputs. The planetary mass, M_p = 8.71 +/- 1.25 M_earth, is obtained from the measured RV semi-amplitude K = 8.62 +/- 1.22 m/s (GLS FAP < 0.1%) combined with the adopted stellar mass M_s = 0.419 +/- 0.009 M_sun, which is taken from independent empirical mass-luminosity and metallicity relations (Mann et al. 2015, 2019) and cross-checked with an SED fit; the stellar mass is not fit to the RV or transit data. Similarly, the planet radius, R_p = 2.378 +/- 0.089 R_earth, is the product of the transit-derived ratio R_p/R_s = 0.0510 +/- 0.0008 and the independently adopted stellar radius R_s = 0.430 +/- 0.013 R_sun, which also agrees with the SED-derived radius. The circular-orbit choice is not an input that defines the mass: the eccentric model yields a consistent mass (8.87 +/- 1.23 M_earth), and the circular model is preferred only by a negligible Bayesian evidence difference (Delta log Z = 0.158). Activity indicators (FWHM, dV, CRX, dLW) and archival photometry show no significant signal at the 1.528-day period, so the RV signal is not being driven by a fitted activity model. The paper does use several pipelines and reduction procedures from co-authored prior work (IRD extraction, MuSCAT photometry), but those are data-processing tools rather than the theoretical or empirical claim itself; no stated uniqueness theorem or ansatz is imported from a self-citation to force the result. The acknowledged limitations, such as the Teff uncertainty excluding stellar atmospheric model systematics and the lack of released machine-readable data, affect accuracy and reproducibility but do not constitute circularity. Overall, no derivation step equates the prediction with a fitted parameter or with the authors' own prior assertion by construction.

Assumptions & free parameters 8 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on standard empirical stellar calibrations, model atmospheres, and noise-model choices, with no new particles, forces, or physical entities introduced.

free parameters (8)
  • K (RV semi-amplitude) = 8.62 +1.22/-1.23 m/s
    Fitted to 85 IRD radial velocities; directly sets the planet mass.
  • Rp/Rs (planet-to-star radius ratio) = 0.0510 ± 0.0008
    Fitted to TESS and MuSCAT transits; combined with the stellar radius gives R_p.
  • impact parameter b = 0.290 +0.104/-0.112
    Fitted to transit shape; affects transit duration, depth, and derived inclination.
  • orbital period P = 1.527561 ± 0.000001 d
    Fitted jointly in the transit and RV models; strongly anchored by many TESS transits.
  • stellar mass M_s = 0.419 ± 0.009 M_sun
    Adopted from an empirical mass-luminosity relation (Mann et al. 2019) rather than directly measured; M_p scales as M_s^(2/3).
  • stellar radius R_s = 0.430 ± 0.013 R_sun
    Adopted from an empirical radius-luminosity relation (Mann et al. 2015) and SED fitting; R_p scales linearly with R_s.
  • limb-darkening coefficients q1, q2 = See Table 4
    Fitted per band with Gaussian priors derived from the PHOENIX model; influence the transit depth and limb shape.
  • jitter and Gaussian-process hyperparameters = See Table 4
    Fitted to absorb photometric and RV correlated noise; part of the noise model rather than the central signal.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption Empirical M dwarf mass-luminosity and radius-luminosity relations calibrated on other stars apply to TOI-654.
    Invoked in Section 3.1.2 to set M_s and R_s; errors in these relations propagate into M_p and R_p.
  • domain assumption One-dimensional LTE model atmospheres (MARCS, BT-Settl) adequately represent the stellar spectrum and SED.
    Used in Sections 3.1.1 and 3.1.2 for Teff and abundances; the paper notes an unquantified model-systematic uncertainty.
  • domain assumption The 1.528-day RV signal is planetary rather than stellar activity.
    Supported by a GLS FAP below 0.1% and the absence of significant peaks in FWHM, dV, CRX, dLW, and photometry, but the possibility of M dwarf activity is not fully excluded.
  • domain assumption The orbit is circular for the adopted fiducial parameters.
    Section 3.2.3: ΔlogZ = 0.158 slightly favors circular over eccentric, but the difference is inconclusive by Kass and Raftery criteria; the derived mass differs by only 0.16 M_Earth between models.
  • domain assumption A Matérn-3/2 Gaussian process describes the correlated noise in the ground photometry.
    Equation (1) models time-correlated systematics for MuSCAT2 and MuSCAT3; the specific kernel choice is not independently tested against alternatives.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of The mass of TOI-654 b: A short-period sub-Neptune transiting a mid-M dwarf." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/RJSZPP43

@misc{pith2026250716222,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: The mass of TOI-654 b: A short-period sub-Neptune transiting a mid-M dwarf},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/RJSZPP43}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2507.16222}
}
abstract

Sub-Neptunes are small planets between the size of the Earth and Neptune. The orbital and bulk properties of transiting sub-Neptunes can provide clues for their formation and evolution of small planets. In this paper, we report on follow-up observations of a planetary system around the mid-M dwarf TOI-654, whose transiting sub-Neptune TOI-654 b ($P=1.53$ day) is validated as a suitable target for the atmospheric observation. We measure the planetary mass and stellar properties with the InfraRed Doppler instrument (IRD) mounted on the Subaru telescope and obtain the stellar and planetary properties from additional transit observations by the Transit Exoplanetary Survey Satellite (TESS) and a series of the Multicolor Simultaneous Camera for studying Atmospheres of Transiting exoplanets (MuSCAT). As a result, the planetary mass of TOI-654 b is determined to be $M_{{\rm p}} = 8.71 \pm 1.25 M_{\oplus}$, and the radius is updated to be $R_{\rm p} = 2.378 \pm 0.089 R_{\oplus}$. The bulk density suggests that the planet is composed of a rocky and volatile-rich core or a rocky core surrounded by a small amount of H/He envelope.TOI-654 b is one of unique planets located around the radius valley and and also on the outer edge of the Neptune desert. The precise mass determination enables us to constrain the atmospheric properties with future spectroscopic observations especially for the emission by the James Webb Space Telescope and Ariel.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2507.16222 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Phase-folded TESS light curve (gray) with the derived orbital period (= 1.528 day) and optimum model (orange) near the transit center within transit windows of three times the transit duration of TOI-654 b (Section 2.1). Alt text: Time-series flux for the transit of the TESS data and the optimum model. and is capable of simultaneous imaging in g-, r-, i-, and zs-bands with a field of view of 9’1 × 9’1. The exposure … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Multicolor simultaneous light curves in g-, r-, i-, and zs-bands, obtained by MuSCAT2 on 2021 March 19 (Top) and MuSCAT3 on 2021 January 28 (Bottom) (Section 2.2 and 2.3). The data are jointly fitted with the transit model (blue, green, orange, and red) and baseline model, and the data are subtracted with the baseline models (gray). Alt text: Time-series flux for the transits of the MuSCAT2 and MuSCAT3 data in g-, r… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Spectrum energy distributions (SED) of TOI-654. Yellow and green curves show the prior and posterior of the SED models. Red diamonds and blue squares are data and optimum, respectively (for details, Section 3.1.2). Alt text: Wavelength (Å) versus flux density (erg cm−2 s −1 Å −1 ) as the SED. Diamond and square show the observed data and optimum point. Two lines show the prior distribution for fitting the SED and th… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (7 more)
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Time-series RV, FWHM, dV, CRX, and dLW (blue) for TOI-654 from the IRD spectra (Section 2.4). Alt text: Time-series RV, FWHM, dV, CRX, and dLW, from the IRD spectra for each panel. the elemental abundances of Na, Mg, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Sr, from the corresponding a…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Periodograms of the RV, Window, O-C, FWHM, dV, CRX, and dLW, obtained with the GLS from the IRD spectra for TOI-654 (Section 3.1.3). The horizontal lines represent the FAP of 0.1, 1.0, and 5.0 %, respectively (black) for each of the panel. In the top panel for the RV, …
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The phase-folded RV data with the orbital period (= 1.528 day) of the planet TOI-654 b (blue), the circular model with its uncertainty (red), and the residual from the model. Alt text: The orbital phase versus the relative RV (m s−1 ) and residual (m s−1 ). The relativ…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Period-Radius diagram for TOI-654 b (red), TOI-4479 b (blue), and small planets suitable for the atmospheric observations (green and pur￾ple in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_8.png]
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: TESS light curves of TOI-654 from the PDC-SAP flux in its sectors 9, 36, 45, 46, 62, and 72 (Section 2.1). The transit windows are marked in orange ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_9.png]
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: The ZTF light curves in g-, r-, and i-bands, and ASAS-SN light curves in V- and g-bands (Section 3.1.3). Alt text: Time-series flux for the ZTF and ASAS-SN data [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_10.png]
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Periodograms for the TESS light curves, ZTF light curves in g-, r-, and i-bands, and ASAS-SN light curves in V- and g-bands (blue), and their window functions (gray), with the GLS for TOI-654 (Section 3.1.3). In each of the panel, the vertical line represent the orbit…

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 6, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.