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arxiv: 2606.00177 · v1 · pith:7HDIPXV2new · submitted 2026-05-29 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.IM

Magnesium Silicate Clouds in the Atmosphere of HD 209458b from a Rule-Based Tree-Structured Data Reduction

Katy L. Chubb , David Grant , Hannah R. Wakeford , Sarah E. Moran , Natasha E. Batalha , Arika Egan , Charlotte Fairman , Diana Powell
show 9 more authors
Kevin B. Stevenson Lili Alderson Peter Gao Tiffany Kataria Nikole K. Lewis Ryan J. MacDonald Mark Marley Elijah Mullens David K. Sing Jeff A. Valenti
This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-28 19:57 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.IM
keywords exoplanet atmosphereshot Jupiterssilicate cloudstransmission spectroscopyJWST observationsHD 209458bdata reduction
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The pith

Amorphous Mg2SiO4 clouds best explain the 5-12 micron spectrum of HD 209458b.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper presents new JWST MIRI/LRS transmission observations of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b that directly capture cloud absorption signatures between 5 and 12 microns. It introduces a rule-based tree-structured method for reducing the data that makes uncertain choices explicit and carries them forward into modeling. Retrievals and self-consistent forward models then show that amorphous magnesium silicate clouds, primarily Mg2SiO4, fit the spectrum far better than either a clear atmosphere or a simple gray-cloud model. When the mid-infrared data are combined with existing optical and near-infrared observations, the clouds are constrained to particle sizes near 0.1 microns and pressures of roughly 1-10 millibar. The result strengthens the case that silicate condensates shape the observable atmospheres of hot Jupiters.

Core claim

The observations indicate the presence of magnesium silicates, most likely Mg2SiO4 or a mixture of Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3. Amorphous Mg2SiO4 clouds explain the LRS data to high significance over a clear atmosphere (Delta ln(Z)=16.63) or gray cloud atmosphere (Delta ln(Z)=22.26). Particle sizes are approximately 0.1 microns and the clouds sit at pressures of roughly 1-10 millibar.

What carries the argument

The rule-based tree-structured data reduction that identifies key decisions and incorporates uncertainties, paired with ARCiS free retrievals and PICASO+Virga self-consistent forward models that attribute the spectrum to magnesium silicate clouds.

If this is right

  • Silicate clouds are a dominant atmospheric component of hot Jupiters.
  • The precise silicate species can help constrain atmospheric chemistry and formation conditions.
  • Particle size and cloud pressure become better constrained once mid-infrared data are combined with optical and near-infrared observations.
  • Magnesium silicates can mute spectral features across multiple wavelength ranges.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same cloud composition may appear in other hot Jupiters observed at similar wavelengths.
  • The tree-structured reduction approach could be applied to other JWST datasets with comparable decision uncertainties.
  • Laboratory optical constants for amorphous Mg2SiO4 at hot-Jupiter temperatures would provide an independent test of the fit.

Load-bearing premise

The atmospheric models correctly capture all relevant opacities and structure without missing species or unaccounted degeneracies when linking the spectrum to magnesium silicates.

What would settle it

Retrievals that assign higher evidence to a different condensate species, or new spectra that lack the specific absorption features attributed to Mg2SiO4, would falsify the central attribution.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.00177 by Arika Egan, Charlotte Fairman, David Grant, David K. Sing, Diana Powell, Hannah R. Wakeford, Jeff A. Valenti, Katy L. Chubb, Kevin B. Stevenson, Lili Alderson, Mark Marley Elijah Mullens, Natasha E. Batalha, Nikole K. Lewis, Peter Gao, Ryan J. MacDonald, Sarah E. Moran, Tiffany Kataria.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Broadband light curve obtained by binning our 5–12 µm MIRI/LRS data. The start of the data are trimmed leaving a long and stable pre-transit baseline with minimal systematics. The best-fit transit model is shown in orange, where the dashed line represents an extrapolation of this model, and depicts the missed transit information due to erroneous observation timing due to an incorrect orbital ephemeris. Ins… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Diagram of the key steps considered in the MIRI/LRS Rule-based tree structure model for this dataset going from the uncal data to the final speci,j,k,.... At the nodes of the tree, branches are expanded for different reduc￾tion and analysis choices; with details provided in the text. Triple dots indicate the continuation of the tree structure. The tree can be described as homogeneous or symmetric in that i… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The decisions that were kept for our 4-leaf spectrum. Our 1-leaf spectrum is formed from spec3. The remaining decisions are those in the middle of the rankings. These decisions are the ones that impact the results meaningfully (often more than half the data points are different but still within 1σ of the uncertain￾ties), but cannot be pruned as it is not certain which branches lead to the most accurate spe… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Transmission spectra from the 1-leaf (orange) and 4-leaf (light blue) reductions as a violin plot. For each reduction option the transit depth distributions are shown as a function of wavelength. For the classical 1-leaf spectrum, the black data points corresponding to the usual 1σ error bars are also shown. et al. 2017), Na (Allard et al. 2019; Kurucz & Bell 1995), K (Allard et al. 2016; Kurucz & Bell 199… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Upper: retrieved 1-leaf LRS transmission spec￾tra for: Mg2SiO4 clouds (orange), Mg2SiO4+MgSiO3 clouds (purple), and a cloud-free atmosphere (blue). Middle: opac￾ity contributions for the Mg2SiO4 cloud setup. Lower: opac￾ity contributions for the Mg2SiO4+MgSiO3 cloud setup. bination are used for the middle and lower panels; see Appendix D for a discussion on the different refractive indices. 4.3. The constr… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Free retrieval of the LRS+NIRCam+HST spectra using: amorphous Mg2SiO4 (“cloudy”, orange), Mg2SiO4+MgSiO3 (“combo”, purple), and a clear atmosphere (blue). The residuals for each model are given in the panel beneath, followed by the offset of the observations used in the retrievals compared to the unscaled observations (where NIRCam is kept anchored). The posterior panels use the labels described in [PITH_… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Magnesium silicate cloud condensation curves (at 1× solar metallicity, faint lines; and best-fit Virga metalllic￾ity, dark lines), along with retrieved pressure-temperature profiles from the best-fit, Mg2SiO4 (oranges) and combo (Mg2SiO4/MgSiO3, purples) ARCiS and Virga retrievals of the LRS+HST+NIRCam spectra, with shaded regions corresponding to the upper and lower 1σ bounds. Also shown is the range of p… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The extent of the cloud layer for the best-fit Mg2SiO4 (oranges) and combination (Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3, purples) ARCiS and Virga retrievals on the LRS (upper pan￾els) and the LRS+HST+NIRCam (lower panels) data. Here VMR is the volume mixing ratio of the cloud species. (Yurchenko et al. 2013; Yurchenko & Tennyson 2014), CO (Rothman et al. 2010; Gordon et al. 2017; Li et al. 2015), CO2 (Huang et al. 2014), CrH… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Our PICASO/Virga best fit spectra with Mg2SiO4 (oranges) or both Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3 clouds (purples).The LRS only fit is shown with dashed lines. We apply an offset between the two compositional runs for clarity. remain robust to the decisions in the decision-tree. We include an exaggerated example of a simulated 2-leaf spectra in Appendix B, to demonstrate how decisions which substantially impact the spec… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Retrieved spectra using amorphous Mg2SiO4 1-leaf vs 4-leaf LRS spectra [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Transmission spectra comparison for two independent pipelines: ExoTiC-MIRI and Eureka!. Top: For ExoTiC-MIRI we show all four of the “leaves” that make up the final ends of the tree of decisions considered in this paper noting that L3 is the main result taken forward to our modeling stage, and the Eureka! spectrum decisions most closely matching L4 at the light curve stage. Bottom: For Eureka! we show the… view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Our simulated 2-leaf transmission spectra, here shown as two separate spectra. The spectra with SiO is in blue, and with SiH in orange. to meaningfully distinguish between the SiO and SiH models, as both are equally weighted in the combined 2-leaf observational spectra. 6 8 10 12 ( m) 0.0128 0.0130 0.0132 0.0134 0.0136 0.0138 0.0140 (R p / R )2 Rp = 1.29 +0.02 0.02 800 1200 1600 2000 Tp Tp = 1200.41 +532.… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Our retrieved transmission spectra (left) and posteriors (right) for the simulated 2-leaf observations. In blue on the left is our combined 2-leaf simulated observations, with our bestfit retrieved spectra and shaded 1, 2, and 3 σ regions in orange. C. HD 209458 STELLAR ABUNDANCES The HD 209458 stellar properties which we use in this work are given in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p025_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Model comparison for the best-fit Virga parameters, changing only the cloud optical properties of the best fit model for the LRS data. Citations for refractive indices used follow those in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Corner plot showing the retrieved parameters for the ARCiS retrieval using the Mg2SiO4 (light orange) and combined Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3 (light purple) atmosphere on the LRS spectra, and Mg2SiO4 (dark orange) and combined Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3 (dark purple) on the full HST+NIRCam+LRS dataset. The median values are listed in the order shown in the parameter key [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p028_15.png] view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Corner plot of the ARCiS retrievals using the Mg2SiO4 atmosphere on the 1-leaf (orange) vs 4-leaf (green) LRS spectra [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p029_16.png] view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: Corner plot of ARCiS retrievals using Mg2SiO4 (orange), combined Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3 (purple) and clear (blue) atmospheres on the full dataset [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p030_17.png] view at source ↗
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: The cumulative transmission contribution, as integrated from the top of the atmosphere towards deeper layers, for the combined Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3 ARCiS retrieval (left) and PICASO grid-retrieval (right) on the full dataset. We overplot the τ = 1 surface at the level where the the cumulative contribution hits a value of 1 - e −1 ≈ 0.63 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p031_18.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

HD 209458b is the canonical hot Jupiter: the first to have its atmosphere measured and the first to hint at the role of aerosols in exoplanet atmospheres through the muting of Na absorption signatures in the optical. Here we present JWST MIRI/LRS transmission observations of HD 209458b from 5-12 microns, directly measuring the absorption signatures of its clouds for the first time. The observations indicate the presence of magnesium silicates, most likely Mg2SiO4 or a mixture of Mg2SiO4 and MgSiO3. We also present a new methodology to reduce observational data, whereby the analysis is formulated as a rule-based model with a tree structure, enabling key decisions to be identified and uncertain decisions to be incorporated into subsequent modeling. With this data reduction, and using a combination of ARCiS free retrievals and PICASO+Virga self consistent forward models, we are able to show that amorphous Mg2SiO4 clouds explain the LRS data to high significance over either a clear (Delta ln(Z)=16.63) or gray cloud atmosphere (Delta ln(Z)=22.26). By combining the LRS dataset with archival JWST NIRCam and HST optical and near-infrared observations, we are able to more robustly constrain the properties of the magnesium silicate condensates, finding particle sizes of approximately 0.1 microns and atmospheric pressures of the clouds of roughly 1-10 millibar. Our results add to the growing detections of silicate clouds as a dominant atmospheric component of hot Jupiters, with the exact silicate species contextualizing the atmospheric chemistry and potentially formation conditions of these planets.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports new JWST MIRI/LRS transmission spectroscopy of HD 209458b (5–12 μm), claiming the first direct detection of magnesium silicate cloud absorption features. Using a novel rule-based tree-structured data reduction pipeline together with ARCiS free retrievals and PICASO+Virga self-consistent forward models, the authors find that amorphous Mg₂SiO₄ (or Mg₂SiO₄+MgSiO₃) clouds are strongly preferred over clear or gray-cloud models (Δln(Z) = 16.63 and 22.26, respectively). When combined with archival NIRCam and HST data, the analysis constrains cloud particle sizes to ~0.1 μm and deck pressures to 1–10 mbar.

Significance. If the underlying opacity tables and atmospheric assumptions hold, the quantitative Bayesian evidence ratios provide a statistically grounded addition to the growing body of silicate-cloud detections in hot Jupiters. The rule-based data-reduction framework, if fully documented, could offer a reproducible alternative to conventional pipelines.

major comments (2)
  1. [§4] Abstract and §4 (ARCiS/PICASO+Virga modeling): the reported Δln(Z) values favoring Mg₂SiO₄ are load-bearing for the central claim, yet the manuscript provides no explicit comparison of the adopted silicate refractive indices or Mie/T-matrix implementations against independent laboratory optical constants or alternative codes for the 8–12 μm region; this leaves open the possibility that the evidence ratios are partly driven by model-specific opacity assumptions rather than the LRS data alone.
  2. [§3] §3 (data reduction): the tree-structured rule-based reduction is presented as enabling identification of key decisions, but the specific decision rules, branching criteria, and quantitative tests for robustness against alternative reduction paths are not supplied, preventing assessment of whether the extracted 5–12 μm spectrum contains reduction-induced artifacts that could mimic the reported silicate feature.
minor comments (1)
  1. Figure captions and text should explicitly state the wavelength range and resolution of the LRS data used in each retrieval to allow direct comparison with the plotted models.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments, which help clarify the presentation of our results. We address each major comment below and will revise the manuscript to incorporate the requested details.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [§4] Abstract and §4 (ARCiS/PICASO+Virga modeling): the reported Δln(Z) values favoring Mg₂SiO₄ are load-bearing for the central claim, yet the manuscript provides no explicit comparison of the adopted silicate refractive indices or Mie/T-matrix implementations against independent laboratory optical constants or alternative codes for the 8–12 μm region; this leaves open the possibility that the evidence ratios are partly driven by model-specific opacity assumptions rather than the LRS data alone.

    Authors: We agree that explicit validation of the opacity assumptions would strengthen the central claim. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated subsection (or appendix) that (i) cites the specific laboratory-derived refractive indices adopted for amorphous Mg₂SiO₄ and MgSiO₃, (ii) compares them to independent optical-constant datasets in the 8–12 μm window, and (iii) reports a limited sensitivity test using an alternative Mie-scattering implementation to quantify any effect on the reported Δln(Z) values. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [§3] §3 (data reduction): the tree-structured rule-based reduction is presented as enabling identification of key decisions, but the specific decision rules, branching criteria, and quantitative tests for robustness against alternative reduction paths are not supplied, preventing assessment of whether the extracted 5–12 μm spectrum contains reduction-induced artifacts that could mimic the reported silicate feature.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the current §3 description is insufficiently detailed for independent verification. In the revision we will expand §3 to include (i) the complete decision tree with explicit branching criteria, (ii) the quantitative robustness metrics obtained when alternative reduction paths are followed, and (iii) a direct comparison of the final 5–12 μm spectrum against spectra produced by those alternative paths, thereby demonstrating that the silicate feature is not an artifact of the chosen reduction sequence. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation applies standard codes to new data.

full rationale

The paper's central result is obtained by fitting established external codes (ARCiS free retrievals, PICASO+Virga forward models) to new JWST MIRI/LRS observations and computing Bayes factors (Delta ln(Z)) between clear, gray-cloud, and Mg2SiO4-cloud models on the same dataset. No step reduces a claimed prediction to a quantity defined by the same fit, no load-bearing self-citation chain is invoked to justify uniqueness or ansatzes, and the optical constants and model assumptions are treated as independent inputs rather than derived from the target spectrum. The derivation is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim depends on the accuracy of standard atmospheric retrieval and forward models plus the correct implementation of the new rule-based reduction; no free parameters are explicitly listed in the abstract beyond the reported particle size and pressure constraints.

free parameters (2)
  • cloud particle size = approximately 0.1 microns
    Derived from joint fit to LRS plus archival data
  • cloud deck pressure = 1-10 millibar
    Derived from joint fit to LRS plus archival data
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption ARCiS and PICASO+Virga models accurately represent cloud opacities and transmission spectra for magnesium silicates
    Invoked to interpret the observed spectrum and compute Delta ln(Z) values

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