Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.
Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.992834Z
Paper Citation Record · LEDGER
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters
As of 16 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 12 of 12 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2607.14051.
A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.
Coverage vector
One-hop event checks from named stored sources.
Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00
Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.
Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links
A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.
Source: cited_works
Reference resolution
12 of 12 outbound references displayed
- verified exact0
- verified fuzzy0
- unresolved12
- parse uncertain0
- malformed identifier0
- metadata mismatch0
External citation measurements
No source-named external measurement is stored.
Outbound references
Observation cb0e026b-bbb2-4559-bc89-f252d1fc91dd · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Unresolved cited work
Reference 1
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.360540Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation a041d3bd-973b-4371-a77c-e433a8448efc · outbound
This paper cites Move away from the prior in proportion to that asymmetry; confident moves require asymmetric evidence, not absence of evidence.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Move away from the prior in proportion to that asymmetry; confident moves require asymmetric evidence, not absence of evidence
Reference 2
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.424380Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 50f528c7-5c1a-4186-9555-5760e9ce7fc6 · outbound
This paper cites Return ONLY a single JSON object matching the requested schema.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Return ONLY a single JSON object matching the requested schema
Reference 3
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.510190Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 7448988e-f880-46cb-b962-95d221232905 · outbound
This paper cites MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting
Reference 4
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.295439Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 1ebb329d-daaa-4b0c-8651-79f6a3b59da9 · outbound
This paper cites reasoning.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters reasoning
Reference 5
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.992834Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 64975eb8-ff41-45f8-9957-7e6890e0dcff · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Unresolved cited work
Reference 8
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.608200Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 11e92fa3-53a7-47d5-81f4-cf86eaf3c1af · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Unresolved cited work
Reference 9
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.699643Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation efbbea28-f4c0-4f4f-b9ba-88f620b82113 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Unresolved cited work
Reference 10
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.796715Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation dafffc9b-f220-47c7-b911-beacea98c267 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Unresolved cited work
Reference 11
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.895429Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 64a26ddc-23a5-4688-b432-7ff39acd1e3a · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Unresolved cited work
Reference 2021
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.142745Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation ce01150b-688d-46a8-8c8a-a58b7f18b255 · outbound
This paper cites Dated Data: Tracing Knowledge Cutoffs in Large Language Models.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters Dated Data: Tracing Knowledge Cutoffs in Large Language Models
Reference 2024
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.055085Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 42e9a80e-2e6d-4f10-892a-b857576e2950 · outbound
This paper cites The Llama 3 Herd of Models.
Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters The Llama 3 Herd of Models
Reference 4650
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T03:01:21.203208Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Pith citing papers
No inbound Pith citation observations are available.