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Lectures on Statistics in Theory: Prelude to Statistics in Practice
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This is a writeup of lectures on "statistics" that have evolved from the initial version for the 2009 Hadron Collider Physics Summer School at CERN to versions for other venues and, most recently, for the African School of Fundamental Physics and Applications in 2024. The emphasis is on foundations, using simple examples to illustrate the points that are still debated in the professional statistics literature. The three main approaches to interval estimation (Neyman confidence, Bayesian, likelihood ratio) are discussed and compared in detail, with and without nuisance parameters. Hypothesis testing is discussed mainly from the frequentist point of view, with pointers to the Bayesian literature. Various foundational issues are emphasized, including the conditionality principle and the likelihood principle.
Forward citations
Cited by 7 Pith papers
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Combination of searches for heavy vector boson resonances in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV
A CMS combination of searches finds no heavy vector boson resonance and excludes HVT W′/Z′ bosons below 5.5 TeV (weak coupling), 4.8 TeV (strong coupling), and 2.0 TeV for VBF production at 95% CL.
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Search for long-lived particles using displaced vertices with low-momentum tracks in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV
A displaced-vertex search for compressed-spectrum long-lived particles excludes top squarks up to about 1100 GeV and wino-like neutralinos up to about 550 GeV, the strongest limits on these benchmark models.
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Constraints on standard model effective field theory for a Higgs boson produced in association with W or Z bosons in the H $\to\mathrm{b\bar{b}}$ decay channel in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV
CMS reports simultaneous constraints on six dimension-six SMEFT Wilson coefficients from VH, H to bb production at sqrt(s) = 13 TeV; all results agree with the standard model.
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Measurement of the Higgs boson total decay width using the H $\to$ WW $\to$ e$\nu\mu\nu$ decay channel in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV
CMS measures the Higgs total width as 3.9 +2.7 -2.2 MeV from the ratio of off-shell to on-shell H→WW production, consistent with the Standard Model.
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On Focusing Statistical Power for Searches and Measurements in Particle Physics
A focused test statistic that weights alternative hypotheses by a user-chosen focus function yields valid frequentist confidence intervals with shorter expected length than the likelihood-ratio test in regions of inte...
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RESOLVE: Rare Event Surrogate Likelihood for Gravitational Wave Paleontology Parameter Estimation
RESOLVE combines a conditional neural process with multi-fidelity polynomial chaos expansion to emulate rare binary black hole formation efficiencies, and claims proper statistical coverage where Gaussian-process surr...
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Probing the 3+1 neutrino model in the SHiP experiment
SHiP with a far detector at 120 m is projected to reach |U_alpha4|^2 ~ 10^-2 near Delta m^2_41 ~ 10^3 eV^2, exceeding current muon and tau mixing limits.
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