Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

As of 14 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 0 of 0 outbound references and 4 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2412.18544.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2412.18544 v2

Coverage vector

measured 0 of 0 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 4 of 4 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00

measured 4 of 4 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:11.460739Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-25T06:05:26.163149Z

Reference resolution

0 of 0 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved0
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

No outbound reference observations are available for this paper version.

Pith citing papers

Observation f1dd5fa7-feed-4d11-8c08-b93fb932308d · inbound

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters cites this paper.

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T12:03:11.460739Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 268f509e-7ae3-497e-8307-410523f0b66b · inbound

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most cites this paper.

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Reference 20

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-22T05:24:38.207260Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation 3bc6aded-f121-430a-bc23-b298855662ef · inbound

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most cites this paper.

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Reference 20

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-25T06:05:26.167016Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-14T06:32:32.682623+00:00.

Observation aef44825-335c-4b73-80cd-32fa8b79f387 · inbound

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? cites this paper.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Reference 31

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.