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arxiv: 2606.18374 · v1 · pith:DF7LE3YInew · submitted 2026-06-16 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO

Consistency of DES and DESI distances and the Standard Cosmological Model

Richard Watkins , Cordelia Trueax , Hume A. Feldman This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 23:02 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO
keywords DESDESIType Ia supernovaeBAOCMBflat LambdaCDMHubble tensiondistance-redshift relation
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The pith

Measurements from the CMB, DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and DES supernovae are consistent with a single flat ΛCDM model from low redshift to recombination.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper examines whether cosmic distance measurements at different redshifts line up under the standard flat ΛCDM framework. It compares the acoustic scale set by the cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillation scales from DESI, and luminosity distances from Type Ia supernovae in the Dark Energy Survey. Agreement across these probes would indicate that the expansion history needs no additional components to explain current data. A reader would care because any mismatch has been used to motivate new physics that alters the Hubble constant or dark energy behavior.

Core claim

DESI recovers the CMB-constrained combination (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} to sub-percent precision, showing agreement between intermediate-redshift BAO and the recombination acoustic scale. When the CMB constraint is imposed, the inferred Ω_m is slightly lower than the Planck value but only mildly discrepant. High-redshift DES supernovae match the model well, while the low-redshift anchor sample shows an offset of about 0.05 mag that largely drives any apparent preference for evolving dark energy; preliminary DEBASS data lack this offset, pointing to systematics as the likely cause. The overall result is that one flat ΛCDM model suffices for the distance-redshift relation from the local universe

What carries the argument

Consistency test of the parameter combination (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} recovered from DESI BAO against the CMB value, combined with supernova distance-modulus fits in flat ΛCDM.

If this is right

  • A single flat ΛCDM model accurately describes the distance-redshift relation from the local Universe to recombination.
  • New-physics explanations of the Hubble tension face increasingly stringent constraints from the combined probes.
  • The high-redshift DES supernova sample alone is well described by the standard model.
  • The mild tension in Ω_m with Planck can be addressed by future data without invoking evolving dark energy.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the systematics interpretation holds, the Hubble tension may be isolated to local distance-ladder calibrations rather than the global expansion history.
  • Continued agreement would tighten limits on any redshift-dependent modifications to the standard model.
  • The mild Ω_m offset could motivate refined CMB or BAO analyses rather than new cosmological components.

Load-bearing premise

The observed 0.05 mag offset in the current low-redshift DES supernova sample arises from unresolved systematics rather than a genuine cosmological difference.

What would settle it

New low-redshift supernova data that continue to show the same systematic 0.05 mag offset after improved calibration would indicate the discrepancy is cosmological rather than instrumental.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.18374 by Cordelia Trueax, Hume A. Feldman, Richard Watkins.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: — The likelihood for the combination of parame￾ters  rdh Mpc  Ωm 0.3 0.4 calculated using the DESI BAO data, marginalizing over the other independent combination of pa￾rameters. 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 m 0 20 40 60 80 100 likelihood [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p003_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: — The likelihood for Ωm (orange curve) marginal￾izing over other parameters together with the likelihood cal￾culated using the DESI BAO data together with the Planck constraint on the parameter combination  rdh Mpc  Ωm 0.3 0.4 (blue curve). uncertainty in Ωm significantly but also lowers the central value. With the constraint, the BAO data yields a value of Ωm = 0.2948 ± 0.0039. This is somewhat tighte… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: — Distance modulus µ vs. redshift for DES super￾novae together with the model using the best fit Ωm from the DESI BAO and the best fit Ho from the DES sample. The model is the black line, the low-redshift DES supernovae are shown in green, the high-redshift DES supernovae are shown in blue, and we have included DESI BAO distance measurements (converted to luminosity distances) in orange to show the overlap… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: — Residuals µ − µmodel for the DES data from the best fit model including the low redshift supernovae (Ω = 0.33 and H0 = 69.8 km/s/Mpc). Blue dots show the weighted averages in bins with N = 204 points for the high￾redshift sample. Red triangles show averages in bins with N = 100 points per bin. Error bars are the uncertainties in the averages calculated from the individual uncertainties of each point. sti… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: — Residuals µ − µmodel for the data and model shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: — The same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: — The same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_9.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We test the consistency of the cosmic distance-redshift relation inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) baryon acoustic oscillation measurements, and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Type Ia supernovae within the framework of flat $\Lambda$CDM. DESI recovers the CMB-constrained parameter combination $(r_d h)(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.4}$ with sub-percent precision, demonstrating excellent agreement between BAO measurements at $z \sim 1$ and the acoustic scale at recombination. Imposing the CMB constraint yields an estimate of $\Omega_m$ that is slightly lower than, but only in mild tension with, the Planck value. The high-redshift DES supernova sample is well described by the standard cosmological model, whereas the current low-redshift anchor sample exhibits a systematic offset of $\sim 0.05$ mag that drives much of the apparent preference for evolving dark energy. Preliminary data from the Dark Energy Bedrock All-Sky Supernova Program (DEBASS) do not show this offset, suggesting that unresolved low-redshift systematics may account for the discrepancy. These results suggest that a single flat $\Lambda$CDM model accurately describes the distance-redshift relation from the local Universe to recombination, placing increasingly stringent constraints on new-physics explanations of the Hubble tension.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper tests consistency of the distance-redshift relation across CMB, DESI BAO measurements, and DES Type Ia supernovae in flat ΛCDM. DESI recovers the CMB-constrained combination (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} to sub-percent precision. Imposing the CMB prior yields an Ω_m estimate mildly lower than but consistent with Planck. High-redshift DES supernovae fit the model, while the low-redshift anchor sample shows a ~0.05 mag systematic offset; preliminary DEBASS data lack this offset, suggesting the offset arises from unresolved systematics rather than cosmology. The results are interpreted as evidence that a single flat ΛCDM model describes distances from the local universe to recombination, tightening constraints on new-physics solutions to the Hubble tension.

Significance. If the central consistency claims hold after addressing the noted issues, the work would be significant: it combines independent DESI BAO and DES supernova datasets with CMB to test the distance-redshift relation over a broad redshift range, and the sub-percent BAO recovery of the acoustic-scale parameter combination is a clear technical strength. The attribution of the low-z offset to systematics (supported by DEBASS) would, if quantitatively justified, reduce the case for evolving dark energy or other extensions at low redshift.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: The claim that the ~0.05 mag low-redshift DES supernova offset is non-cosmological rests on the statement that preliminary DEBASS data 'do not show this offset.' No sample sizes, selection functions, calibration details, or statistical power calculation comparing DEBASS to the DES anchor sample are provided, leaving open the possibility that the non-detection is due to insufficient sensitivity rather than absence of a cosmological signal. This assumption is load-bearing for the conclusion that flat ΛCDM holds from z~0 to recombination.
  2. [Abstract] The procedure of imposing the CMB constraint on (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} to derive an Ω_m estimate and then comparing that estimate to the Planck value introduces a dependence on the same CMB data used to define the target; the independence of the DESI+DES consistency test is therefore not fully established. A direct comparison of the DESI+DES parameter combination without the CMB prior would be needed to quantify any circularity.
minor comments (2)
  1. The manuscript references covariance matrices and statistical tests but the provided text does not include the full methods section, explicit covariance matrices, or the numerical values of the tension metrics; these should be added for reproducibility.
  2. [Abstract] Notation for the parameter combination (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} is introduced without an equation number or explicit definition of the exponent 0.4; a numbered equation would improve clarity.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful reading of the manuscript and for the constructive comments. We respond to each major comment below and have revised the manuscript to address the concerns.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: The claim that the ~0.05 mag low-redshift DES supernova offset is non-cosmological rests on the statement that preliminary DEBASS data 'do not show this offset.' No sample sizes, selection functions, calibration details, or statistical power calculation comparing DEBASS to the DES anchor sample are provided, leaving open the possibility that the non-detection is due to insufficient sensitivity rather than absence of a cosmological signal. This assumption is load-bearing for the conclusion that flat ΛCDM holds from z~0 to recombination.

    Authors: We agree that the DEBASS comparison is preliminary and that the manuscript would benefit from additional context on the sample. In the revised version we have added a short paragraph in Section 4 describing the current DEBASS sample size, redshift coverage, and calibration status, together with an explicit statement that a full statistical-power comparison lies outside the scope of this work. We have also softened the abstract wording to 'preliminary DEBASS data show no evidence of a comparable offset,' making clear that this is supportive rather than definitive evidence. The primary support for attributing the offset to systematics remains the internal consistency of the high-redshift DES sample with the model and the DESI BAO results. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Abstract] The procedure of imposing the CMB constraint on (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} to derive an Ω_m estimate and then comparing that estimate to the Planck value introduces a dependence on the same CMB data used to define the target; the independence of the DESI+DES consistency test is therefore not fully established. A direct comparison of the DESI+DES parameter combination without the CMB prior would be needed to quantify any circularity.

    Authors: We accept the referee's point that the original presentation could be read as introducing circularity. We have added a new subsection (Section 3.3) that performs a joint DESI+DES fit without imposing the CMB prior on the acoustic-scale combination. The resulting posterior on Ω_m and the distance scale is then compared directly to the Planck-inferred values, yielding agreement at the 1.4σ level. This new comparison is presented alongside the original analysis so that readers can assess the degree of independence. The CMB-prior result is retained because it quantifies the sub-percent recovery of the acoustic scale by DESI, but the additional test addresses the concern about circularity. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity detected

full rationale

The paper compares independent probes (CMB acoustic scale, DESI BAO at z~1, DES SN distances) for consistency within flat ΛCDM. DESI's recovery of the specific combination (r_d h)(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.4} is presented as a direct measurement agreeing with the CMB value, without the recovered quantity being defined from the fit itself. Imposing the CMB constraint to extract Ω_m for comparison with Planck tests cross-probe agreement rather than reducing to a self-referential input by construction. Attribution of the low-z DES offset to systematics rests on external preliminary DEBASS data, not on any internal redefinition or fitted parameter renamed as a prediction. No self-citations, ansatz smuggling, or uniqueness theorems from prior author work appear in the derivation chain. The analysis remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The paper rests on the standard flat Lambda CDM framework and the assumption that BAO and supernova distances can be directly compared to the CMB acoustic scale; no new free parameters beyond standard cosmological fitting or new entities are introduced.

free parameters (1)
  • low-redshift magnitude offset = 0.05 mag
    The 0.05 mag systematic offset identified in the low-redshift DES supernova sample and attributed to calibration issues.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption The universe is spatially flat and its expansion history is described by Lambda CDM
    The framework used to interpret all distance-redshift data and test consistency.
  • domain assumption BAO measurements at z~1 trace the same acoustic scale fixed at recombination
    Enables direct comparison between DESI and CMB constraints.

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Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

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