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arxiv: 2606.26026 · v1 · pith:GMSQHUMInew · submitted 2026-06-24 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

Can giant impacts be directly detected in other star systems?

Pavan Tanna , Simon Lock , Amy Bonsor , Simon Hodgkin , Cathie. J. Clarke This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-25 19:21 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords giant impactsplanet formationGaia photometryLSSTpost-impact remnantsluminosity evolutionterrestrial planetshydrodynamic simulations
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The pith

Giant impacts between Earth-composition planets produce post-impact bodies with luminosities from 5e-5 to 0.1 solar that cool over 1-2000 days, creating detectable brighten-then-dim signals in Gaia and LSST photometry.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper runs smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of collisions between planets with total masses from 0.2 to 4 Earth masses. It locates the photic surface of each remnant to calculate initial luminosity and cooling behavior. The resulting bodies reach luminosities between 5 times 10 to the minus 5 and 0.1 solar luminosities and fade roughly exponentially. This produces a transient signature of sudden brightening followed by gradual dimming in optical and near-infrared bands. Scaling by estimated planet and impact rates yields a prediction of 0 to 14 detections in Gaia DR4 and a similar number in LSST.

Core claim

Giant impacts between Earth-composition planets were simulated using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code SWIFT, with total colliding masses ranging from 0.2 to 4 Earth masses. By constraining the location of the photic surface of the post-impact bodies produced by the simulations, the initial luminosities of post-impact bodies were found to be between 5 times 10 to the minus 5 and 10 to the minus 1 solar luminosities, with luminosity falling roughly exponentially on a timescale between 1 and 2000 days. Based on our results, along with estimates for planet and giant impact occurrence rates, we anticipate that between 0 and 14 terrestrial giant impacts will be observed in the full release

What carries the argument

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of giant impacts with photic surface location used to derive initial luminosity and exponential cooling timescale of the post-impact body.

If this is right

  • Giant impacts appear as sudden brightenings followed by gradual dimming in optical and near-infrared photometry.
  • Between 0 and 14 terrestrial giant impacts are expected in Gaia DR4 epoch photometry.
  • A comparable number of events should appear in LSST data.
  • Multiple identified remnants would directly constrain the galactic frequency of giant impacts during planet formation.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Detections would allow direct measurement of how often giant impacts occur across many star systems rather than relying on solar-system statistics alone.
  • Non-detections would place tighter upper limits on the role of giant impacts in shaping the observed exoplanet population.
  • The same cooling models could be applied to future time-domain surveys or multi-wavelength follow-up to refine occurrence-rate estimates.

Load-bearing premise

Planet occurrence rates and giant impact occurrence rates are used to scale the simulated luminosities into expected detection numbers.

What would settle it

Zero detections or more than 14 detections of the predicted brighten-then-dim transients in the full Gaia DR4 epoch photometry would falsify the rate estimate.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.26026 by Amy Bonsor, Cathie. J. Clarke, Pavan Tanna, Simon Hodgkin, Simon Lock.

Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Cumulative histogram showing, for a given impact luminosity, the proportion of stars in the Gaia sample where this impact is detectable, as calculated in §2.6.1. The plot shows this detectable proportion for Gaia’s and LSST’s sensitivity with 3 and 5 sigma detections. This plot does not take into account that giant impacts only happen around young stars. nitude 𝑚𝑔,∗) after an impact with a brightness of 𝑛 … view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Snapshots of the density in the midplane of the colliding bodies from a selection of impacts with varying impact parameters. The first impact is the baseline scenario, with the rest of the impacts shown having the same initial conditions aside from a single parameter changed. The second and third impacts show the effect that changing the mass has on the impact remnant. The fourth impact shows the effect of… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Initial luminosity (luminosity immediately after impact – an upper bound) and after cadence luminosity (luminosity after cooling for the survey cadence length – a lower bound), and cooling time of all simulated giant impacts (see also [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Plot showing simulated Gaia epoch photometry observations of two simulated giant impacts (from [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: 2D histogram showing the distribution of stars in the Gaia catalogue which allow a 3-sigma detection of a giant impact on an HR diagram. The vast majority of stars where giant impacts are detectable have an effective temperature below 3700 K and are hence M dwarfs. A small number are K type stars and none are G type or brighter. of hotter material to maintain the hydrostatic structure. If droplets (or mult… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Plot showing the number of post-impact bodies expected to be detectable with Gaia and LSST in the Gaia catalogue across a 5 and 10 year observing period, calculated using the Monte Carlo method. 10 7 10 8 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 13 10 14 10 15 Inner pressure limit (Pa) 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 Cooling time (days) Sim 2 (0.5 M ) Sim 0 (1.0 M ) Sim 5 (2.0 M ) Sim 7 (4.0 M ) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p0… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Plot showing how altering the pressure limit changes the post￾impact body cooling time for four simulations. At pressure limits above 1013 Pa, all of the energy of the post-impact body is radiated away. Lower pressure limits lead to a much smaller cooling time. Hill sphere will become unbound (see Rufu & Aharonson 2018, for a study of this effect in circum-planetary impacts), reducing the size of the post-… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Phase diagram show how the absorption coefficient of silicate changes with specific entropy and pressure, calculated using the forsterite equation of state (Stewart et al. 2019) and the optical absorption model (Kraus et al. 2012), taking into account droplet absorption. The silicate vapour becomes optically thin at the length scales of a post-impact body at pressures below around 104 Pa in the vapour phas… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Omitting droplet removal has a minimal effect on the luminosity but can change the cooling time. However, the change in cooling time is not significant enough to alter the observability of any impact. The initial luminosity cooling timescale for Simulations 0 to 6 with their orbital period set at 10 days, as described in §4.1.2. 10 3 10 2 10 1 Initial L u min osity (L ) Sim 2 (0.50 M ) Sim 0 (1.00 M ) Sim… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: The effect of altering the orbital period of the post-impact body on the initial luminosity and cooling time for a range of simulations. massive super-Earths (with masses up to 10 𝑀⊕), sub-Neptunes, Neptunes and gas-giant planets have not been considered. Such plan￾ets make up a large number of known exoplanets with super-Earths thought to be the most common type of terrestrial planet (Neil & Rogers 2020)… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Giant impacts, collisions between planet-sized bodies, play an important role in planet and moon formation. As we enter a new era of large-scale surveys, such as \textit{Gaia} and LSST at the Vera C. Rubin observatory, there is potential to directly observe the remnants produced in such events and gain insights into the process of planet formation. Here, by modelling the emission and cooling of a series of giant impact remnants, we show that giant impacts are detectable as a sudden brightening followed by gradual dimming in the optical and near-infrared. Giant impacts between Earth-composition planets were simulated using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code {\small SWIFT}, with total colliding masses ranging from 0.2 to 4 $M_{\oplus}$. By constraining the location of the photic surface of the post-impact bodies produced by the simulations, the initial luminosities of post-impact bodies were found to be between $5\times10^{-5}$ and $10^{-1}$ solar luminosities, with luminosity falling roughly exponentially on a timescale between 1 and 2000 days. Based on our results, along with estimates for planet and giant impact occurrence rates, we anticipate that between 0 and 14 terrestrial giant impacts will be observed in the full release of \textit{Gaia} epoch photometry in DR4, with at least a comparable number found by LSST. Identifying the remnants of multiple giant impacts will offer a powerful constraint on the frequency of giant impacts in the galaxy and hence the role of such collisions in planet formation.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript uses smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations with the SWIFT code to model giant impacts between Earth-composition planets (total masses 0.2–4 M_⊕). It derives initial post-impact luminosities of 5×10^{-5} to 10^{-1} L_⊙ by locating the photic surface and finds roughly exponential cooling on timescales of 1–2000 days. These results are combined with literature estimates of planet occurrence and giant-impact rates to predict 0–14 detectable events in Gaia DR4 (and a comparable number in LSST) via sudden brightening followed by gradual dimming in optical/near-IR photometry.

Significance. If the luminosity and cooling calculations hold, the work identifies a concrete photometric signature that could allow direct observation of giant impacts, offering an independent constraint on their frequency during planet formation. The use of SPH runs across a mass range to produce observable quantities is a clear strength. However, the headline detection numbers (0–14) are not robust because they scale directly with external occurrence-rate inputs whose uncertainties dominate the reported range.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the quantitative prediction of 0–14 events in Gaia DR4 is obtained by multiplying simulation-derived per-event luminosities and cooling timescales by external estimates of terrestrial planet occurrence and giant-impact frequency. These rates are drawn from the literature rather than derived or validated within the manuscript; the resulting broad interval (0–14) therefore reflects the span of those external inputs, not the simulation results alone. This scaling dependence is load-bearing for the central claim of survey yields.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states that the photic surface location is constrained from the simulations, but provides no detail on the method, temperature or optical-depth criterion used, or any validation against known post-impact states; this step is central to the reported luminosity range and should be expanded.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful review and constructive comments. We agree that the detection-yield range depends on external literature estimates and will revise the abstract to clarify this distinction.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the quantitative prediction of 0–14 events in Gaia DR4 is obtained by multiplying simulation-derived per-event luminosities and cooling timescales by external estimates of terrestrial planet occurrence and giant-impact frequency. These rates are drawn from the literature rather than derived or validated within the manuscript; the resulting broad interval (0–14) therefore reflects the span of those external inputs, not the simulation results alone. This scaling dependence is load-bearing for the central claim of survey yields.

    Authors: The referee correctly notes that the 0–14 range arises from the span of literature occurrence rates rather than from the SPH results alone. The manuscript’s core contribution is the simulation-derived luminosities (5×10^{-5} to 10^{-1} L_⊙) and cooling timescales (1–2000 days). The yield estimate is presented as an order-of-magnitude illustration of detectability, using the rates cited in the text. We will revise the abstract to state the simulation results first, followed by the statement that, when combined with literature estimates of planet occurrence and giant-impact frequency, we anticipate 0–14 events in Gaia DR4. This makes the dependence explicit without changing the primary findings. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in derivation chain

full rationale

The paper derives initial luminosities (5e-5 to 0.1 Lsun) and exponential cooling timescales (1-2000 days) directly from SWIFT SPH simulations of Earth-composition collisions (0.2-4 Mearth) plus photic surface constraints; these steps are independent of occurrence rates. The 0-14 Gaia DR4 detection estimate is obtained by scaling the simulation outputs with external literature estimates for planet/giant-impact rates, which are not fitted, self-derived, or reduced to the paper's own inputs by construction. No self-citation load-bearing, uniqueness theorems, or ansatzes appear in the derivation. The central luminosity modeling is self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The detection forecast rests on external occurrence-rate estimates and on domain assumptions about how to locate the photic surface in the SPH output; no new entities are introduced.

free parameters (1)
  • planet and giant impact occurrence rates
    These rates are multiplied by the per-event detectability derived from simulations to obtain the 0-14 prediction; they are not derived inside the work.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Photic surface location can be reliably constrained from the post-impact SPH particle distributions for Earth-composition bodies
    This step converts simulation snapshots into initial luminosities and cooling curves.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5817 in / 1282 out tokens · 34896 ms · 2026-06-25T19:21:51.583706+00:00 · methodology

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