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Optimal empirical Bayes estimation for the Poisson model via minimum-distance methods

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arxiv 2209.01328 v3 pith:GXLKCBLS submitted 2022-09-03 math.ST stat.MEstat.TH

classification math.STstat.MEstat.TH
keywords bayesempiricalmethodrobbinsbeendataestimatorestimators
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The Robbins estimator is the most iconic and widely used procedure in the empirical Bayes literature for the Poisson model. On one hand, this method has been recently shown to be minimax optimal in terms of the regret (excess risk over the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior) for various nonparametric classes of priors. On the other hand, it has been long recognized in practice that the Robbins estimator lacks the desired smoothness and monotonicity of Bayes estimators and can be easily derailed by those data points that were rarely observed before. Based on the minimum-distance distance method, we propose a suite of empirical Bayes estimators, including the classical nonparametric maximum likelihood, that outperform the Robbins method in a variety of synthetic and real data sets and retain its optimality in terms of minimax regret.

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Cited by 2 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Besting Good--Turing: Optimality of Non-Parametric Maximum Likelihood for Distribution Estimation

    math.ST 2025-09 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    An NPMLE-based empirical Bayes estimator is shown to be competitively optimal (up to log factors) for KL-risk distribution estimation, while Good-Turing is provably suboptimal.

  2. Solving Empirical Bayes via Transformers

    cs.LG 2025-02 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A transformer pre-trained on synthetic Poisson data can beat the classical NPMLE estimator on several empirical Bayes tasks and run about 100x faster.

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