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Searching for structure in the binary black hole spin distribution

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arxiv 2210.12287 v2 pith:KGR6U4J3 submitted 2022-10-21 astro-ph.HE gr-qc

classification astro-ph.HEgr-qc
keywords distributionspinblackdistributionspopulationastrophysicalfindholes
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

The spins of black holes in merging binaries can reveal information related to the formation and evolution of these systems through their gravitational wave emission. Combining events to infer the astrophysical distribution of black hole spins allows us to determine the relative contribution from different formation scenarios to the population. Many previous works have modeled spin population distributions using parametric models. While these are valuable approaches when the observed population is small, they make strong assumptions about the shape of the underlying distribution and are highly susceptible to biases due to mismodeling. The results obtained with such parametric models are only valid if the allowed shape of the distribution is well-motivated (i.e. for astrophysical reasons). In this work, we relax these prior assumptions and model the spin distributions using a more data-driven approach, modeling these distributions with flexible cubic spline interpolants in order to allow for capturing structures that the parametric models cannot. We find that adding this flexibility to the model substantially increases the uncertainty in the inferred distributions, but find a general trend for lower support at high spin magnitude and a spin tilt distribution consistent with isotropic orientations. We infer that 62 - 87% of black holes have spin magnitudes less than a = 0.5, and 27- 50% of black holes exhibit negative $\chi_{\rm eff}$. Using the inferred $\chi_{\rm eff}$ distribution, we place a conservative upper limit of 37% for the contribution of hierarchical mergers to the astrophysical BBH population. Additionally, we find that artifacts from unconverged Monte Carlo integrals in the likelihood can manifest as spurious peaks and structures in inferred distributions, mandating the use of a sufficient number of samples when using Monte Carlo integration for population inference.

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Cited by 7 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. When (not) to trust Monte Carlo approximations for hierarchical Bayesian inference

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    A unified error statistic E-hat measures information lost to Monte Carlo noise in hierarchical Bayesian inference, with a recommended cutoff of 0.2 bits.

  2. Establishing Compactness as a Population Observable in Gravitational-Wave Astronomy

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    Hierarchical analysis of GWTC-3 yields C_eff = 0.5^{+0.3}_{-0.1} consistent with black holes and limits low-compactness exotic binary merger rate to <0.7 Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.

  3. A new group of low-spin $50-70M_\odot$ Black Holes and the high pair-instability mass cutoff

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    GWTC-4.0 reveals low-spin black holes up to ~68.5 Msun, implying a higher pair-instability mass cutoff and a lower 12C(alpha,gamma)16O rate.

  4. Nowhere left to hide: revealing realistic gravitational-wave populations in high dimensions and high resolution with PixelPop

    astro-ph.HE 2025-06 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Modeling all significant correlations with the nonparametric model PixelPop recovers the true black-hole merger rate in a simulated 400-event gravitational-wave catalog, while simpler models introduce bias.

  5. The Long Road to Alignment: Measuring Black Hole Spin Orientation with Expanding Gravitational-Wave Datasets

    astro-ph.HE 2025-05 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Simulated gravitational-wave catalogs show spin-tilt peaks at alignment are hard to confirm even with 1500 events, while integrated tilt fractions are robust.

  6. Inferring the pair-instability mass gap from gravitational wave data

    astro-ph.HE 2025-06 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Non-parametric analysis of GWTC-3 finds a transition at roughly 46 solar masses above which the effective spin distribution broadens and becomes consistent with symmetry around zero, consistent with second-generation ...

  7. The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins

    gr-qc 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 1.0 of 10

    A review summarizing formation-channel predictions, waveform effects, and population-level constraints on stellar-mass black hole spins from the first decade of gravitational-wave observations.

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