REVIEW 3 major objections 2 minor 1 cited by
TDEs on FIRE: Illuminating the Cosmic Evolution of Tidal Disruption Rates
T0 review · 3 major / 2 minor · reviewed 2026-06-28 · grok-4.3
Pith's one-line read Simulations find the average tidal disruption rate per galaxy peaks near redshift 2.5 then falls sharply by redshift 1.
desk verdict FIRE-2 supplies the first simulation-based TDR(z) to z=10 but the central densities sit below the resolution limit, so the numbers rest on an untested extrapolation. read the letter →
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
The reading
What carries the argument
FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations that model central stellar densities, black-hole populations, and dynamical conditions to compute per-galaxy tidal disruption rates across redshift.
What would settle it
A direct measurement or statistical sample of tidal disruption events at redshift approximately 2.5 that yields an average per-galaxy rate far below or far above 4 times 10 to the minus 4 per year.
Extended reading notes
Core claim
Using the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations, the per-galaxy tidal disruption rate is computed over redshifts 1 to 10 for black holes ranging from intermediate-mass to supermassive. The averaged rate rises from the early universe, peaks at approximately 4 times 10 to the minus 4 per year near redshift 2.5, and declines to about 10 to the minus 5 per year at redshift 1. This rate correlates strongly with host-galaxy star-formation rate and central stellar density at all redshifts. The dependence on black-hole mass and galaxy mass remains qualitatively similar from high redshift to the local universe, and satellite galaxies show comparably high rates whose fractional contribution grows at
Load-bearing premise
The FIRE-2 simulations accurately capture the central stellar densities, black-hole populations, and dynamical conditions needed to compute tidal disruption rates at redshifts above 1.
Editorial extensions
If this is right
- Tidal disruption rates track star-formation rate and central density, so galaxies with elevated star formation should produce more events at any redshift.
- Satellite galaxies maintain high rates whose share increases at high redshift, making them useful targets for finding intermediate-mass black holes.
- The black-hole to galaxy mass trends stay consistent from high redshift to today, supporting similar scaling relations across cosmic time.
- Cosmological simulations can now supply predictions for the cosmic evolution of tidal disruption rates that future surveys can test directly.
Reading between the lines
- Confirmation of the redshift-2.5 peak would link the era of maximum star formation directly to the era of maximum central stellar densities that drive disruptions.
- Higher rates at earlier times could alter estimates of how much black-hole growth occurs through stellar capture rather than gas accretion.
- If satellite contributions are as large as modeled, wide-field high-redshift transient searches could preferentially detect events in merging or assembling galaxies.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper uses FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations to compute per-galaxy tidal disruption rates (TDR) from z=1 to 10 across IMBH to SMBH masses. It reports that the averaged TDR rises from early times, peaks at ~4×10^{-4} yr^{-1} near z~2.5, and falls to ~10^{-5} yr^{-1} at z=1. The TDR is stated to correlate strongly with host SFR and central stellar density at all redshifts; trends with M_BH and M_gal are qualitatively similar to the local universe; satellite galaxies contribute an increasing fraction of the TDR at high z.
Significance. If robust, the work supplies the first simulation-derived TDR(z) evolution and links it to galaxy properties, offering testable predictions for high-redshift TDE searches. The approach of extracting rates directly from cosmological zoom-ins is novel for this problem. Credit is due for covering a wide redshift range and including satellites. However, the result's significance hinges on whether the unresolved central densities can be reliably mapped to TDR.
major comments (3)
- [Abstract / Methods] Abstract and methods (TDR extraction): the headline TDR(z) curve is obtained by applying an estimator to simulated M_BH, M_gal, SFR, and central stellar density. No derivation, functional form, or sub-grid extrapolation for the loss-cone density is provided; the exponential sensitivity of TDR to density within the BH influence radius means any inaccuracy in the unresolved nuclear density shifts both normalization and peak redshift by factors of several.
- [Abstract / Results] Abstract and results (validation): no comparison of the computed local (z~0) TDR to observed rates is shown, nor are error bars or resolution convergence tests reported. Without this anchor, the claimed evolution from z=10 to z=1 cannot be assessed for systematic bias.
- [Abstract] Abstract (correlations): the reported strong correlation between TDR and central stellar density is expected by construction once the estimator is applied to that density; it therefore does not constitute independent validation of the redshift trend or the underlying density field.
minor comments (2)
- [Abstract] Abstract: include a one-sentence description of the TDR estimator and the mass range of black holes considered.
- [Figures] Figure clarity: ensure any TDR(z) plots show individual galaxy tracks or scatter in addition to the average to allow assessment of sample variance.
Simulated Author's Rebuttal
We thank the referee for their detailed and constructive report. We address each major comment below and indicate where revisions will be made to strengthen the manuscript.
read point-by-point responses
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Referee: [Abstract / Methods] Abstract and methods (TDR extraction): the headline TDR(z) curve is obtained by applying an estimator to simulated M_BH, M_gal, SFR, and central stellar density. No derivation, functional form, or sub-grid extrapolation for the loss-cone density is provided; the exponential sensitivity of TDR to density within the BH influence radius means any inaccuracy in the unresolved nuclear density shifts both normalization and peak redshift by factors of several.
Authors: We agree that the methods section would benefit from an explicit derivation of the TDR estimator, including the functional form relating loss-cone refilling to central stellar density. The estimator follows the standard loss-cone formalism (e.g., as in Merritt & Wang 2005 and subsequent works), applied to the resolved central densities in FIRE-2. We will add this derivation, the precise functional form, and a brief discussion of sub-grid assumptions in a revised Methods section. This addresses the concern about transparency while noting that the simulations themselves provide the density evolution. revision: yes
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Referee: [Abstract / Results] Abstract and results (validation): no comparison of the computed local (z~0) TDR to observed rates is shown, nor are error bars or resolution convergence tests reported. Without this anchor, the claimed evolution from z=10 to z=1 cannot be assessed for systematic bias.
Authors: We acknowledge the value of anchoring the results to local observations. In the revised manuscript we will include a direct comparison of our z≈0 TDR values to the observed local TDE rate range (∼10^{-5}–10^{-4} yr^{-1} per galaxy) from the literature, along with sample variance error bars derived from the zoom-in suite. Resolution convergence is limited by the fixed FIRE-2 resolution; we will add a brief discussion of this limitation and note that higher-resolution follow-up simulations would be needed for full convergence tests. revision: partial
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Referee: [Abstract] Abstract (correlations): the reported strong correlation between TDR and central stellar density is expected by construction once the estimator is applied to that density; it therefore does not constitute independent validation of the redshift trend or the underlying density field.
Authors: We agree that the TDR–central-density correlation is expected by construction of the estimator. However, the independent correlation with SFR (which is not an input to the estimator) and the persistence of M_BH and M_gal trends across redshift provide additional support for the physical trends. We will revise the abstract and results text to clarify this distinction and to emphasize that the redshift evolution arises from the simulated evolution of galaxy properties rather than from the estimator alone. revision: yes
Circularity Check
No significant circularity in derivation chain
full rationale
The paper computes per-galaxy TDR directly from FIRE-2 simulation snapshots of M_BH, M_gal, SFR and central stellar density over z=1-10, then reports the resulting averaged TDR(z) evolution and correlations. No equations, fitted parameters, or self-citations are shown that define the output TDR in terms of itself or rename a fitted input as a prediction. The stated correlations with SFR and central density are expected consequences of applying any standard TDR estimator but do not reduce the headline TDR(z) curve to a tautology by construction; the main result remains an independent computation from the simulation data. The derivation is therefore self-contained against external simulation inputs with no load-bearing circular steps.
Assumptions & free parameters
Cite this review
Pith. "Pith review of TDEs on FIRE: Illuminating the Cosmic Evolution of Tidal Disruption Rates." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/U73YDRXB
@misc{pith2026260604740,
author = {Pith},
title = {Pith review of: TDEs on FIRE: Illuminating the Cosmic Evolution of Tidal Disruption Rates},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/U73YDRXB}},
note = {Machine review of arXiv:2606.04740}
}
abstract
Tidal disruption events have been extensively studied in the local universe, but their prevalence at high redshifts remains largely unexplored. Using the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations, we compute the per-galaxy tidal disruption rate (TDR) over $z=1-10$, covering black holes from IMBHs to SMBHs. The averaged TDR rises from the early universe, peaks at $\sim 4 \times 10^{-4} \, \text{yr}^{-1}$ near $z \sim 2.5$, and declines to $\sim 10^{-5} \, \text{yr}^{-1}$ at $z=1$. The TDR correlates strongly with host galaxy star formation rate and central stellar density at all redshifts. Qualitatively, the TDR trends with the $M_{\rm BH}$ and $M_{\rm gal}$ persist from high redshift to the local universe, suggesting similar BH-galaxy scaling across cosmic time. Satellite galaxies exhibit comparably high TDRs, with their fractional contribution increasing significantly at high redshifts, highlighting their potential for probing IMBHs and early galaxy assembly. This work demonstrates that cosmological simulations offer a promising avenue for constraining the cosmic evolution of the TDR, paving the way for future comparisons with next-generation observations.
Figures
Figures from the paper (8 more)
Forward citations
Cited by 1 Pith paper
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Rates of tidal disruption events from constrained cosmological simulations of the local Universe: population properties and implications for transient surveys
In simulated local clusters, tidal disruption events are dominated by cuspy satellite galaxies in extended halos, with a volumetric rate of ~600 Gpc^-3 yr^-1 inherited from empirical TDE scaling relations.
Reference graph
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Reviewed June 28, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.
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