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pith:7PNRIZQB

pith:2026:7PNRIZQBMOLJYZTFNDW67FIKCN

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Starshaped Mean Residual Life Models for Non-Monotonic Survival Data: A Bayesian PMRL Regression Framework with Applications to Teacher Retention

Mohammad Sepehrifar

A starshaped mean residual life model captures non-monotonic survival patterns by requiring only that the mean residual life divided by time is nondecreasing.

arxiv:2605.17646 v1 · 2026-05-17 · stat.ME

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Claims

C1strongest claim

Monte Carlo simulations across 48,000 datasets show SMEL-PMRL maintains bias ≤ 0.02 under 40% right-censoring, reduces integrated Brier score by 19% over Cox models (2.34 vs. 2.88×10^{-2}), and achieves 5.4% AIC improvement. Application to 169 rural STEM teachers confirms starshaped equilibrium (Λ=12.47, p=0.002), with 38% early-career tenure decline and joint model showing persistence yields 31-point achievement gains.

C2weakest assumption

The central modeling premise that m(t)/t is nondecreasing for the mean residual life function, which is invoked to formalize the transition from vulnerability to equilibrium and is required for the SMEL property to hold in both the general framework and the teacher retention application.

C3one line summary

A starshaped mean residual life (SMEL) model with proportional mean residual life regression is developed for non-monotonic survival data, estimated Bayesianly and tested on simulations and rural STEM teacher retention data.

References

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[1] D., & Dowling, N 2008

[2] Carver-Thomas, D., & Darling-Hammond, L. (2017). Teacher turnover: Why it matters and what we can do about it. Learning Policy Institute 2017

[3] Goldhaber, D., Gross, B., & Player, D. (2011). Teacher career paths, teacher quality, and persistence in the classroom: Are public schools keeping their best? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 2011

[4] Ingersoll, R. M. (2001). Teacher turnover and teacher shortages: An organizational analysis. American Educational Research Journal, 38(3), 499--534 2001

[5] M., & May, H 2012

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Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:04:50.373588Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

fbdb14660163969c666568edef950a135694d7906d68484576b8f4c9d783815b

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.17646 · arxiv_version: 2605.17646v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.17646 · pith_short_12: 7PNRIZQBMOLJ · pith_short_16: 7PNRIZQBMOLJYZTF · pith_short_8: 7PNRIZQB

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curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/7PNRIZQBMOLJYZTFNDW67FIKCN \
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Canonical record JSON

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    "primary_cat": "stat.ME",
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