Pith Number

pith:S7LT2ECB

pith:2026:S7LT2ECB3AZFHZ72G5IB6GOUON

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Prior-Agnostic Robust Forecast Aggregation

Cheng Peng, Wei Tang, Zhi Chen

A closed-form log-odds aggregator pools expert forecasts in logit space to achieve minimax regret bounds below 0.026 even when the prior and state space are unknown.

arxiv:2604.24517 v2 · 2026-04-27 · cs.LG · cs.GT

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\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{S7LT2ECB3AZFHZ72G5IB6GOUON}

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Record completeness

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Our main contribution is a simple, explicit, closed-form log-odds aggregator that linearly pools forecasts in logit space, together with (nearly-)tight minimax-regret guarantees across three knowledge regimes.

C2weakest assumption

The analysis relies on binary states and conditionally independent signals to obtain the stated regret numbers.

C3one line summary

A log-odds pooling rule achieves minimax regret of 0.0255 for conditionally independent signals under prior-agnostic robust forecast aggregation with unknown state space.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-26T01:03:31.230487Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

97d73d1041d83253e7fa37501f19d4737e51184f9df9f5210f618ee993f819a7

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.24517 · arxiv_version: 2604.24517v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.24517 · pith_short_12: S7LT2ECB3AZF · pith_short_16: S7LT2ECB3AZFHZ72 · pith_short_8: S7LT2ECB

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/S7LT2ECB3AZFHZ72G5IB6GOUON \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 97d73d1041d83253e7fa37501f19d4737e51184f9df9f5210f618ee993f819a7

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "ee2ad43727b88d99af8d6430aece4906b78d2cfbf6db14fcce9360f6c16e20cd",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.GT"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-27T14:18:57Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "99521a12005be5d2398f2d07f4dd353f2fc34f35c10a104c29a4f51a5ccf9fa0"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2604.24517",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}