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pith:VQ5UHYNS

pith:2026:VQ5UHYNSCW3BIBGX4OLSJGGKL5
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High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Planning for Puerto Rico's Electric Power System

Amelia Musselman, Elizabeth Glista, Jean-Paul Watson, Juliette Franzman, Minda Monteagudo, Tomas Valencia Zuluaga

Puerto Rico requires at least 1.5 GW of new combined-cycle gas capacity beyond planned projects to maintain grid reliability.

arxiv:2604.18926 v2 · 2026-04-21 · math.OC · cs.SY · eess.SY

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4 Citations open
5 Replications open
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Claims

C1strongest claim

an optimal portfolio includes at least 1.5 GW of new H-class combined cycle capacity beyond planned projects. These additions are needed mainly to replace unreliable legacy thermal units rather than to serve new load. The new combined cycle units eliminate modeled bulk-system load shedding and restore a strong reserve margin, even under stressed load and outage conditions.

C2weakest assumption

The input data from LUMA, PREPA, DOE, and public sources, together with the assumed high forced outage rates of legacy units and the stochastic scenarios for load, renewables, and outages, accurately represent real-world conditions and future uncertainties.

C3one line summary

Puerto Rico requires at least 1.5 GW of new H-class combined cycle capacity beyond planned projects to replace unreliable legacy thermal units, eliminate load shedding, and restore reserve margins.

Receipt and verification
First computed 2026-07-02T00:18:28.809886Z
Builder pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature Pith Ed25519 (pith-v1-2026-05) · public key
Schema pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

ac3b43e1b215b61404d7e3972498ca5f678da567b68dd3b9c5cb5242a3676af3

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.18926 · arxiv_version: 2604.18926v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.18926 · pith_short_12: VQ5UHYNSCW3B · pith_short_16: VQ5UHYNSCW3BIBGX · pith_short_8: VQ5UHYNS
Agent API
Verify this Pith Number yourself
curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/VQ5UHYNSCW3BIBGX4OLSJGGKL5 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: ac3b43e1b215b61404d7e3972498ca5f678da567b68dd3b9c5cb5242a3676af3
Canonical record JSON
{
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      "cs.SY",
      "eess.SY"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "math.OC",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-21T00:05:56Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "e55b97ec63e99a7a201149a72bb6a6cd98b4288877ad1005fc4b64ad0cf0cfd3"
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  "source": {
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    "kind": "arxiv",
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}