Observational data-driven MHD simulations reproduced an X1.6 flare's onset and showed that photospheric velocity input extends prediction lead time beyond one hour.
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3D MHD simulation of successive flux-rope eruptions shows reconnection flux accumulating linearly with CME velocity, consistent with HMI/AIA observations of one event.
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Evolution of reconnection flux during eruption of magnetic flux ropes
3D MHD simulation of successive flux-rope eruptions shows reconnection flux accumulating linearly with CME velocity, consistent with HMI/AIA observations of one event.