For rare violent re-offense, risk assessment tools face a structural Likelihood Ratio Wall limiting positive predictive value to low levels with current discrimination power, worsened by a Surveillance Ceiling from over-policing that reduces maximum precision for over-policed groups even at equal re
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The Likelihood Ratio Wall: Structural Limits on Accurate Risk Assessment for Rare Violence
For rare violent re-offense, risk assessment tools face a structural Likelihood Ratio Wall limiting positive predictive value to low levels with current discrimination power, worsened by a Surveillance Ceiling from over-policing that reduces maximum precision for over-policed groups even at equal re